Genetic deficiency of PTX3 affects the antifungal capacity of neutrophils and may contribute to the risk of invasive aspergillosis in patients treated with HSCT. (Funded by the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases and others.).
Blocking occurrence and its impacts on European temperature have been studied in the last decade. However, most previous studies on blocking impacts have focused on winter only, disregarding its fingerprint in summer and differences with other synoptic patterns that also trigger temperature extremes. In this work, we provide a clear distinction between high-latitude blocking and sub-tropical ridges occurring in three sectors of the Euro-Atlantic region, describing their climatology and consequent impacts on European temperature during both winter and summer.Winter blocks (ridges) are generally associated to colder (warmer) than average conditions over large regions of Europe, in some areas with anomalies larger than 5ºC, particularly for the patterns occurring in the Atlantic and Central European sectors. During summer, there is a more regional response characterized by above average temperature for both blocking and ridge patterns, especially those occurring in continental areas, although negative temperature anomalies persist in southernmost areas during blocking.An objective analysis of the different forcing mechanisms associated to each considered weather regime has been performed, quantifying the importance of the following processes in causing the temperature anomalies: horizontal advection, vertical advection and diabatic heating. While during winter advection processes tend to be more relevant to explain temperature responses, in summer radiative heating under enhanced insolation plays a crucial role for both blocking and ridges.Finally, the changes in the distributions of seasonal temperature and in the frequencies of extreme temperature indices were also examined for specific areas of Europe. Winter blocking and ridge patterns are key drivers in the occurrence of regional cold and warm extreme temperature, respectively. In summer, they are associated with substantial changes in the frequency of extremely warm days, but with different signatures in southern Europe. We conclude that there has been some misusage of the traditional blocking definition in the attribution of extreme events.
Abstract. Average monthly precipitation, the original Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and a recent adaptation to Europe, the Self Calibrated PDSI (scPDSI) have been used here to analyse the spatial and temporal evolution of drought conditions in the Mediterranean during the 20th century. Monthly, seasonal and annual trends were computed for the period 1901-2000 and also for the first and second halves of this period. The statistical significance of trends was obtained with a modified version of the Mann-Kendall test that accounts for serial auto-correlation. The results show a clear trend towards drier conditions during the 20th century in most western and central Mediterranean regions, with the exceptions of northwestern Iberia and most of Turkey that reveal an increase of moisture availability. A Generalized Extreme Values (GEV) analysis was applied to the maximum and minimum regional values of scPDSI, with results pointing towards a significant decline of absolute extreme values in central areas (Italy and Balkans) and a less clear picture emerging in western (Iberia) and eastern (Turkey) realms.The inter-annual variability of the scPDSI index series is shown to be more realistic than the corresponding PDSI version, fitting better the drought episodes sequence and magnitude described in the literature for each sub-region. We assess the decadal and inter-annual variability of the scPDSI for each sub-domain and evaluate the role played by the major teleconnection patterns, and by several sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The main driver of scPDSI in western and central Mediterranean areas is the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern that is also relevant during the following spring and summer seasons with anti-correlation values below −0.60. The second most important mode corresponds to the Scandinavian Pattern that is significantly assoCorrespondence to: R. M. Trigo (rmtrigo@fc.ul.pt) ciated to the scPDSI between winter and summer over central Mediterranean (correlation values around 0.50). Finally, the teleconnection and SST analysis has allowed us to calibrate a stepwise regression model, enabling the forecasting of summer drought conditions six months in advance. The final model obtained is capable of reproducing the observed scPDSI time series fairly well, with a correlation coefficient of 0.79 (0.77 after cross-validation) and a significant gain over climatology (SS c =59%), while the corresponding result against persistence is more modest (SS p6 =11%).
An increase in the frequency of extremely hot and dry events has been experienced over the past few decades in South America, and particularly in Brazil. Regional climate change projections indicate a future aggravation of this trend. However, a comprehensive characterization of drought and heatwave compound events, as well as of the main land–atmosphere mechanisms involved, is still lacking for most of South America. This study aims to fill this gap, assessing for the first time the historical evolution of compound summer drought and heatwave events for the heavily populated region of Southeast Brazil and for the period of 1980–2018. The main goal is to undertake a detailed analysis of the surface and synoptic conditions, as well as of the land–atmosphere coupling processes that led to the occurrence of individual and compound dry and hot extremes. Our results confirm that the São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais states have recorded pronounced and statistically significant increases in the number of compound summer drought and heatwave episodes. In particular, the last decade was characterized by two austral summer seasons (2013/14 and 2014/15) with outstanding concurrent drought and heatwave conditions stemmed by severe precipitation deficits and a higher-than-average occurrence of blocking patterns. As result of these land and atmosphere conditions, a high coupling (water-limited) regime was imposed, promoting the re-amplification of hot spells that resulted in mega heatwave episodes. Our findings reveal a substantial contribution of persistent dry conditions to heatwave episodes, highlighting the vulnerability of the region to climate change.
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