A Canadian 2050 energy outlook: Analysis with the multi-regional model TIMES-Canada

Vaillancourt, Kathleen; Alcocer-Morales, Yuri-Ernesto; Bahn, Olivier; Fertel, Camille; Frenette, Erik; Garbouj, Hichem; Kanudia, Amit; Labriet, Maryse; Loulou, Richard; Marcy, Mathilde; Neji, Yosra; Waaub, Jean–Philippe

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.06.072

Cited by 70 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Wang Zheng et al [10] comprehensively assessed China's future carbon emissions and energy consumption according to energy consumption, cement production and forest carbon sinks under an optimal economic growth trajectory and found that the energy consumption will experience a carbon peak of 2.6 GtC (Gigatonnes of Carbon) in 2031. Vaillancourt et al [11] constructed a multi-regional TIMES-Canada model to calculate the energy consumption trend in Canada through 2050, and the results showed that Canada's energy consumption in 2050 will have increased by 43% compared with the 2007 level.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Agent-Based Model to Project China’s Energy Consumption and Carbon Emission Peaks at Multiple Levels

Mohamed

Wang

2017

Sustainability

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Abstract:To assess whether China's emissions will peak around 2030, we forecast energy consumption and carbon emissions in China. We use an agent-based model driven by enterprises' innovation. Results show some differences in both energy consumption peaks and carbon emission peaks when we compare trends at different levels. We find that carbon emissions and energy consumption will peak in 2027 and 2028, respectively. However, the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries will reach energy consumption in different years: 2023, 2029, and 2022, respectively, and reach carbon emission peaks in 2022, 2028, and 2022, respectively. At the sectoral level, we find a wider range of energy consumption peaks and carbon emission peaks. Peak energy consumption occurs between 2020 and 2034, and peak carbon emissions between 2020 and 2032. Commercial and catering businesses, utilities and resident services, and finance and insurance achieve peak energy consumption and carbon emissions earliest in 2020, while building materials and other non-metallic mineral products manufacturing and metal products manufacturing are the two latest sectors to reach peak energy consumption and emissions, in 2034 and 2032, respectively.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Agent-Based Model to Project China’s Energy Consumption and Carbon Emission Peaks at Multiple Levels

Mohamed

Wang

2017

Sustainability

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“…A model may be then further detailed in several ways. One possible way of extending the model is to descend from national level to regional model in order to better reflect regional diversity in the particular energy market, such as better representation of the heating sector that allows making better links to localized heat demand or inclusion of regionally specific biomass supply and hence region-specific costs [16,22,25]. Another stream of the model extension aims at temporal and/or operational detail of the model.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Nevertheless, the most common approach being followed in the literature (e.g., [16,22,25]) relies on one set of fuel prices and technology costs that are both exogenous parameters of the model. This paper extends the TIMES model structure with respect to usage of detailed operational data and linking technology operation to emissions and the damage they cause.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of Reclassified Brown Coal Reserves on the Energy System and Deep Decarbonisation Target in the Czech Republic

Rečka

Ščasný

2017

Energies

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Abstract:In 2015, a 24-year-long prohibition of coal mining within some territories in the North Bohemia coal basin was lifted and as a consequence mining a part of the brown coal reserves might well be resumed. This paper analyses the impacts of maintaining the ban versus three options for a less environmentally stringent policy on the Czech energy system; fuel-and technology-mix, the costs of generating energy, emissions and related external costs up to 2050. We find that overall the effect of lifting the ban, on coal usage, air pollutant emissions and hence externalities is rather small, up to 1-2% compared to the level of keeping the ban. The small difference in the impacts remains even if changes in the prices of fossil fuels and European Emission Allowances or different development in nuclear power usage are assumed. In fact, changing these assumptions will result in more pronounced differences in the impacts than the four policy options might deliver. Maintaining the ban would not achieve the European Energy Roadmap 2050 target and the newly adopted policy and the other two counter-environmental proposals would miss the 80% reduction target to an even greater degree. The environmental and external health costs attributable to emissions of local air pollutants stemming from power generation are in a range of €26-32 billion over the whole period and decline from about 0.5% of gross domestic product in 2015 to 0.1% in 2050.

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“…Exploring climate change mitigation scenarios using a single model is the most common approach. For example, Vaillancourt et al (2014) used TIMES-Canada energy model to simulate and analyze the possible trends of the Canadian energy system on a 2050 horizon. Similarly, Ruamsuke et al (2015) used CGE model to assess the impact of climate change policy in Southeast Asian countries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating models on the web : applications for socio-environmental studies

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A Canadian 2050 energy outlook: Analysis with the multi-regional model TIMES-Canada

Cited by 70 publications

References 13 publications

An Agent-Based Model to Project China’s Energy Consumption and Carbon Emission Peaks at Multiple Levels

An Agent-Based Model to Project China’s Energy Consumption and Carbon Emission Peaks at Multiple Levels

Impacts of Reclassified Brown Coal Reserves on the Energy System and Deep Decarbonisation Target in the Czech Republic

Integrating models on the web : applications for socio-environmental studies

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