“…23 The in-game free throw data that GVT analyze (Study 3: Celtics, 1980-81, 1981 seasons: 9 players), while arguably controlled, is not ideal for the study of hot hand shooting for a number of reasons: (i) hitting the first shot in a pair of isolated shots is not typically regarded by fans and players as hot hand shooting (Koehler and Conley 2003), presumably due to the high prior probability of success (≈ .75), (ii) hitting a single shot is a weak signal of a player's underlying state, which can lead to severe measurement error (Arkes 2013;Stone 2012), (iii) it is vulnerable to an omitted variable bias, as free throw pairs are relatively rare, and shots must be aggregated across games and seasons in order to have sufficient sample size (Miller and Sanjurjo 2014). In any event, subsequent studies of free throw data have found evidence that is inconsistent with the conclusions that GVT drew from the Celtics' data (Aharoni and Sarig 2011;Arkes 2010;Goldman and Rao 2012;Miller and Sanjurjo 2014;Wardrop 1995;Yaari and Eisenmann 2011). Table 2: Columns 4 and 5 reproduce the shooting percentages and number of shots that appear in Table 4, Columns 2 and 8, from Gilovich et al (1985) (note: 3 hits (misses) includes streaks of 3, 4, 5, etc.).…”