A blessing in disguise: The implications of high global oil prices for the North American market

Alquist, Ron; Guénette, Justin-Damien

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.002

Cited by 25 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…By contrast, real incomes contracted due to the value of exports (oil) (Isfeld, 2015). This finding is similar to that of Alquist and Guénette (2014). In the cases of upper-middle income countries, Europe & Central Asia and South Asia, oil price has a positive but non-significant impact on economic growth.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 77%

Dynamics of electricity consumption, oil price and economic growth: Global perspective

et al. 2017

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Abstract:This study uses the data from 157 countries from 1960 to 2014 to analyze the relationship between economic growth, electricity consumption, oil prices, capital, and labor. The economic growth of developing countries with industrial infrastructure has a more significant association with electricity consumption than oil prices. We use oil prices and electricity consumption jointly to study highly predictive observations for economic growth. The data are categorized by income, OECD and regional levels. The panel cointegration, long-run parameter estimation, and Pool Mean Group testsare used to analyze the cointegration and short-run and long-run relationships between the variables. The empirical results indicate the presence of cointegration between the variables. The presence of feedback effects between electricity consumption and economic growth, oil prices and economic growth is valid. These findings confirm that inspite of the oil prices, developing countries rely heavily on electricity consumption for economic growth. In the short run, growth and feedback effects suggest that more vigorous electricity policies should be implemented to attain sustainable economic growth for the long-term.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 77%

Dynamics of electricity consumption, oil price and economic growth: Global perspective

et al. 2017

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“…According to the EIA's 2017 Annual Report, the combination of nontraditional oil production techniques and the increased prevalence of natural gas in the global energy marketplace will make America a net energy exporter by 2026. 18 However, evidence suggests America's increased oil production has had little impact on the global price of oil (Alquist & Guenette, 2014).…”

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confidence: 99%

Identifying the Causes of Issue Attention and Policy Change: Evidence from U.S. Offshore Oil and Natural Gas Drilling Policy, 2008

Hughes

2017

Review of Policy Research

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The flow of attention in the policy process is dynamic and disruptive. While we know changes in issue attention often result in policy change, the causal mechanisms underlying the different stages of the attention allocation process remain unclear. This article uses Punctuated Equilibrium Theory to examine an underdeveloped aspect of issue attention within policy-making institutions: how specific policy indicators influence the entry and exit of issues on policy-making agendas. Partisan issue attention in the House of Representatives is used to analyze a significant change to U.S. offshore oil and natural gas drilling policy in 2008. The results highlight how historically high gasoline prices precipitated a shift in attention to offshore drilling and subsequent policy change. Moreover, gasoline prices Granger-cause attention to energy policy in partisan speeches over time. The analysis further reveals how competing policy frames and a salient focusing event shaped congressional and public discourse, leading to subsequent changes in attention. Taken together, the findings broaden our understanding of the policy process by identifying the specific forces behind the entry and exit of issues on the policy-making agenda. Identificando las causas de la atenci on a temas y cambios pol ıticos: evidencia obtenida de la pol ıtica de extracci on de petr oleo y gas natural costa afuera de 2008El flujo de atenci on en el proceso pol ıtico es din amico y disruptivo. A pesar de que sepamos que los cambios en atenci on a los temas resultan a menudo en cambios pol ıticos, los mecanismos causales que est an por debajo de las diferentes etapas del proceso de asignar atenci on permanecen inciertos. Este art ıculo utiliza la teor ıa del equilibrio puntuado para examinar un aspecto subdesarrollado de la atenci on a temas dentro de las instituciones de creaci on de pol ıticas: c omo los indicadores pol ıticos espec ıficos influencian la entrada y salida de problemas en las agendas de creaci on de pol ıticas. La atenci on a problemas partidistas en la C amara de Representantes se usa para analizar un cambio significativo a la pol ıtica de perforaci on costa afuera de petr oleo y gas natural en 2008. Los resultados resaltan c omo los precios hist oricamente altos de la gasolina apresuraron un cambio en atenci on a la bs_bs_banner perforaci on costa afuera y el cambio pol ıtico posterior. Adicionalmente, los precios de la gasolina tienen el efecto causal de Granger en la atenci on a la pol ıtica de energ ıa en discursos partidistas con el tiempo. El an alisis revela adicionalmente c omo los marcos pol ıticos rivales y un enfoque destacado dieron forma al discurso p ublico y del congreso, lo que llev o a cambios subsiguientes en atenci on. En conjunto, los hallazgos ampl ıan nuestro entendimiento del proceso pol ıtico al identificar las fuerzas espec ıficas detr as de la entrada y salida de temas en la agenda de creaci on de pol ıticas.

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“…While Domanski et al (2015) provide an analysis of the sector borrowing as a whole, Plosser (2014) concentrates on the levels of deposits and the willingness of banks to lend to the shale oil companies. The development of shale oil became possible due to the high global oil prices, according to Alquist (2014). The author examines potential developments regarding the unconventional oil extraction levels and predicts a substantial increase in it.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Oil Price, Overleveraging and Shakeout in the Shale Energy Sector -- Game Changers in the Oil Industry

Gevorkyan

Semmler

2015

SSRN Journal

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In recent years, we have observed significant growth in unconventional energy, shale energy, in particular in the United States. There was a boom, followed by a bust. The plunge in oil price triggered a prolonged bust in the energy sector. Which firms will benefit, and which will be squeezed out due to this persistent oil price decline? A new equilibrium is about to evolve under these conditions. In this paper, we develop a theoretical model that accounts for recent features in the energy sector. In particular, we focus on the shale energy companies and illustrate a trend toward a boom in external borrowing, overleveraging, and, now, a high risk of insolvency. With the use of a new method, called nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC), we show dynamic paths toward two equilibria: either a tight oligopoly or extensive competition, with the shakeout of some firms. This is also tracked by studying leveraging and overleveraging by groups of firms. We further undertake an empirical analysis using a vector error correction model (VECM), which helps identify the short-and long-term effects of those new challenges on the stock performance of the energy companies. The main finding is that large-cap companies are less dependent on the fluctuation in oil price than are mid-and small-cap firms.JEL classification: D43, Q43, Q32

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A blessing in disguise: The implications of high global oil prices for the North American market

Cited by 25 publications

References 19 publications

Dynamics of electricity consumption, oil price and economic growth: Global perspective

Dynamics of electricity consumption, oil price and economic growth: Global perspective

Identifying the Causes of Issue Attention and Policy Change: Evidence from U.S. Offshore Oil and Natural Gas Drilling Policy, 2008

Oil Price, Overleveraging and Shakeout in the Shale Energy Sector -- Game Changers in the Oil Industry

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