“…Indeed, the size of the output decline associated with this episode was generally much larger than comparable deflations during other periods (Graph 2). In addition, more of the contraction of aggregate demand went into output than into prices and nominal wages than in 1919-1921, reflecting in large part the presence of important structural rigidities (Bordo, Erceg and Evans (1997), Hanes and James (2001), O'Brien (1989)). …”
Section: -1933 (The Great Contraction): An Ugly Deflationmentioning
What does the historical record tell us about how to conduct monetary policy in a deflationary environment? We present a broad cross-country historical study of deflation over the past two centuries in order to shed light on current policy challenges. We first review the theoretical literature on deflation. We then characterize deflation by distinguishing among the "good, the bad and the ugly" ones -considering both empirical determinants and historical narratives of each type. Emphasis is put on the linkages between the current inflation environment and that of the gold standard period.Particular attention is also put on what the historical record reveals about policies to escape undesirable deflation. In this regard we develop a policy typology based on the relative merits of interest rate and monetary instruments in combating different types of inflation/deflation behavior.
“…Indeed, the size of the output decline associated with this episode was generally much larger than comparable deflations during other periods (Graph 2). In addition, more of the contraction of aggregate demand went into output than into prices and nominal wages than in 1919-1921, reflecting in large part the presence of important structural rigidities (Bordo, Erceg and Evans (1997), Hanes and James (2001), O'Brien (1989)). …”
Section: -1933 (The Great Contraction): An Ugly Deflationmentioning
What does the historical record tell us about how to conduct monetary policy in a deflationary environment? We present a broad cross-country historical study of deflation over the past two centuries in order to shed light on current policy challenges. We first review the theoretical literature on deflation. We then characterize deflation by distinguishing among the "good, the bad and the ugly" ones -considering both empirical determinants and historical narratives of each type. Emphasis is put on the linkages between the current inflation environment and that of the gold standard period.Particular attention is also put on what the historical record reveals about policies to escape undesirable deflation. In this regard we develop a policy typology based on the relative merits of interest rate and monetary instruments in combating different types of inflation/deflation behavior.
“…18 18 Kendrick's data shows that real output fell only around 3 percent in the early 1920s, but real consumption and investment actually increased. Thus, the 1921-22 recession largely reflects a decline in government purchases, which partially reflects the postwar Presidents Hoover and Roosevelt shared similar goals of fostering industrial collusion and increasing real wages and raising labor's bargaining power.…”
Herbert Hoover. I develop a theory of labor market failure for the Depression based on Hoover's industrial labor program that provided industry with protection from unions in return for keeping nominal wages fixed. I find that the theory accounts for much of the depth of the Depression and for the asymmetry of the depression across sectors. The theory also can reconcile why deflation/low nominal spending apparently had such large real effects during the 1930s, but not during other periods of significant deflation.
“…It was as if the simultaneous occurrence of wage rate cuts and perhaps the steepest depression yet experienced in U.S. history was perceived as proof that such cuts were the cause of the depression, rather than a cure which helped bring the downturn to an end. Anthony Patrick O'Brien (1989) has shown that, by the mid-1920s, many employers had publicly announced that wage rates would not be reduced during the next downturn because of the view that changes in wage rates lead to corresponding changes in purchasing power.…”
Section: "The Employer's Dilemma" --An Early Statement Of the High-wamentioning
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