A Bayesian Look at Nonidentifiability: A Simple Example

Wechsler, Sergio; Izbicki, Rafael; Esteves, Luís Gustavo

doi:10.1080/00031305.2013.778787

Cited by 16 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…The parameters of such a model cannot be estimated using classical frequentist methods [78,79] but can be estimated in a Bayesian framework (e.g. [80]; for an introduction to Bayesian methods see [81]). As described below, we defined subjective priors where we felt we had sufficient prior information to do so and applied informative regularizing priors on the remaining model parameters [82].…”

Section: (B) Methods Of Statistical Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

When does matriliny fail? The frequencies and causes of transitions to and from matriliny estimated from a de novo coding of a cross-cultural sample

Shenk

Begley

Nolin

et al. 2019

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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The question of when and why societies have transitioned away from matriliny to other types of kinship systems—and when and why they transition towards matriliny—has a long history in anthropology, one that is heavily engaged with both evolutionary theory and cross-cultural research methods. This article presents tabulations from a new coding of ethnographic documents from the Standard Cross-Cultural Sample (SCCS), tallying claims of transitions in kinship systems both away from and to matriliny using various levels of stringency. We then use our counts as the outcome variables in a set of Bayesian analyses that simultaneously estimate the probability of a transition occurring given societal covariates alongside the conditional probability of detecting a transition given the volume of ethnographic data available to code. Our goal is to estimate the cross-cultural and comparative frequency of transitions away from and to matriliny, as well as to explore potential causes underlying these patterns. We find that transitions away from matriliny have been significantly more common than ‘reverse transitions' to matriliny. Our evidence suggests that both rates may be, in part, an artefact of the colonial and globalizing period during which the data comprising much of the current ethnographic record were recorded. Analyses of the correlates of transitions away from matriliny are consistent with several of the key causal arguments made by anthropologists over the past century, especially with respect to subsistence transition (to pastoralism, intensive agriculture and market economies), social complexity and colonialism, highlighting the importance of ecological factors in such transitions. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The evolution of female-biased kinship in humans and other mammals’.

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Section: (B) Methods Of Statistical Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

When does matriliny fail? The frequencies and causes of transitions to and from matriliny estimated from a de novo coding of a cross-cultural sample

Shenk

Begley

Nolin

et al. 2019

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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“…If The procedures for constructing pragmatic hypotheses induced by KL and CD also satisfy an additional property given by Theorem 3. [40,41]. Also, let KL m and CD m be the dissimilarities calculated using Z m .…”

Section: Theorem 2 Let P *mentioning

confidence: 99%

Pragmatic Hypotheses in the Evolution of Science

Esteves

Izbicki

Stern

et al. 2019

Entropy

Self Cite

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This paper introduces pragmatic hypotheses and relates this concept to the spiral of scientific evolution. Previous works determined a characterization of logically consistent statistical hypothesis tests and showed that the modal operators obtained from this test can be represented in the hexagon of oppositions. However, despite the importance of precise hypothesis in science, they cannot be accepted by logically consistent tests. Here, we show that this dilemma can be overcome by the use of pragmatic versions of precise hypotheses. These pragmatic versions allow a level of imprecision in the hypothesis that is small relative to other experimental conditions. The introduction of pragmatic hypotheses allows the evolution of scientific theories based on statistical hypothesis testing to be interpreted using the narratological structure of hexagonal spirals, as defined by Pierre Gallais.

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“…Inference for a simulated series will give a good overview of the resulting consequences and will provide a way to manage the issue, which will be used successfully later to analyze the cylinder liner data. The notion of identifiability, especially in a Bayesian framework, is clearly described in Wechsler et al 24 .…”

Section: Some Critical Issues About Model and Choice Of Priorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling Wear in Cylinder Liners

Hermann

Ruggeri

2016

Quality & Reliability Eng

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We present and discuss a stochastic model describing the wear process of cylinder liners in a marine diesel engine. The model is based on a stochastic differential equation, and Bayesian inference is illustrated. Corrosive action and measurement error, both quite negligible, are modeled with a Wiener process whereas a jump process is used to describe the contribution of soot particles to the wear process. The model can be used to forecast the wear process and, consequently, plan condition-based maintenance activities. In the paper, we provide a critical illustration of the mathematical and computational aspects of the model. We propose a strategy that, implemented for simulated and real data, allows for stable parameter estimation and forecasts.

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A Bayesian Look at Nonidentifiability: A Simple Example

Cited by 16 publications

References 12 publications

When does matriliny fail? The frequencies and causes of transitions to and from matriliny estimated from a de novo coding of a cross-cultural sample

When does matriliny fail? The frequencies and causes of transitions to and from matriliny estimated from a de novo coding of a cross-cultural sample

Pragmatic Hypotheses in the Evolution of Science

Modeling Wear in Cylinder Liners

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