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Moss, Scott; Pahl‐Wostl, Claudia; Downing, Thomas E.

doi:10.1023/a:1011527523183

Cited by 65 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…With respect to climate-related issues, social simulations and ABMs are important tools for understanding social behaviour. Regarding ABM, the literature shows a strong focus on social-economic and social-ecological perspectives [33][34][35], agricultural modelling [36,37] and adaptation processes in connection with climate policy [38][39][40] and migration [41,42]. Only a few social-psychological models were developed; e.g., [43] analyses the perceived resilience of an individual to changing climatic conditions and [37] implemented risk, coping, and social appraisal in agricultural adaptation processes in Sri Lanka.…”

Section: Agent-based Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Threat and Anxiety in the Climate Debate—An Agent-Based Model to Investigate Climate Scepticism and Pro-Environmental Behaviour

Kapeller

Jäger

2020

Sustainability

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In order to meet the challenges of sustainable development, it is of utmost importance to involve all relevant decision makers in this process. These decision makers are diverse, including governments, corporations and private citizens. Since the latter group is the largest and the majority of decisions relevant to the future of the environment is made by that group, great effort has been put into communicating relevant research results to them. The hope is that well-informed citizens make well-informed choices and thus act in a sustainable way. However, this common but drastic simplification that more information about climate change automatically leads to pro-environmental behaviour is fundamentally flawed. It completely neglects the complex social-psychological processes that occur if people are confronted with threatening information. In reality, the defence mechanisms that are activated in such situations can also work against the goal of sustainable development, as experimental studies showed. Based on these findings, we propose an agent-based model to understand the relation between threatening climate change information, anxiety, climate change scepticism, environmental self-identity and pro-environmental behaviour. We find that the exposure to information about climate change, in general, does not increase the pro-environmental intent unless several conditions regarding the individual's values and information density are met.

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Section: Agent-based Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Threat and Anxiety in the Climate Debate—An Agent-Based Model to Investigate Climate Scepticism and Pro-Environmental Behaviour

Kapeller

Jäger

2020

Sustainability

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“…Specifically, their economic foundations are mostly based on traditional equilibrium models that cannot capture the complexity of social systems and emergent behavioural patterns (Pahl-Wostl et al, 2013). Thus, current IAM outputs risk delivering overly optimistic, unrealistic and potentially flawed messages about future change (Moss, Pahl-Wostl, & Downing, 2001). This is problematic given their dominance in the literature, underpinning a common view that challenging, but incremental energy policy is sufficient to deliver on the Paris Agreement.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

What if negative emission technologies fail at scale? Implications of the Paris Agreement for big emitting nations

et al. 2017

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A cumulative emissions approach is increasingly used to inform mitigation policy. However, there are different interpretations of what '2°C' implies. Here it is argued that cost-optimization models, commonly used to inform policy, typically underplay the urgency of 2°C mitigation. The alignment within many scenarios of optimistic assumptions on negative emissions technologies (NETs), with implausibly early peak emission dates and incremental short-term mitigation, delivers outcomes commensurate with 2°C commitments. In contrast, considering equity and sociotechnical barriers to change, suggests a more challenging short-term agenda. To understand these different interpretations, short-term CO 2 trends of the largest CO 2 emitters, are assessed in relation to a constrained CO 2 budget, coupled with a 'what if' assumption that negative emissions technologies fail at scale. The outcomes raise profound questions around high-level framings of mitigation policy. The article concludes that applying even weak equity criteria, challenges the feasibility of maintaining a 50% chance of avoiding 2°C without urgent mitigation efforts in the short-term. This highlights a need for greater engagement with: (1) the equity dimension of the Paris Agreement, (2) the sensitivity of constrained carbon budgets to short-term trends and (3) the climate risks for society posed by an almost ubiquitous inclusion of NETs within 2°C scenarios. POLICY RELEVANCE Since the Paris meeting, there is increased awareness that most policy 'solutions' commensurate with 2°C include widespread deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs). Yet much less is understood about that option's feasibility, compared with near-term efforts to curb energy demand. Moreover, the many different ways in which key information is synthesized for policy makers, clouds the ability of policy makers to make informed decisions. This article presents an alternative approach to consider what the Paris Agreement implies, if NETs are unable to deliver more carbon sinks than sources. It illustrates the scale of the climate challenge for policy makers, particularly if the Agreement's aim to address 'equity' is accounted for. Here it is argued that much more attention needs to be paid to what CO 2 reductions can be achieved in the short-term, rather than taking a risk that could render the Paris Agreement's policy goals unachievable.

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“…The choice of a modality hangs on the conditions and ideas on how responsible parties are using the participatory integrated assessment for local planning, including implementation (Ridder and Pahl-Wostl, 2005). An IEA must extend to the social and economic aspects to be of use for planning for sustainability (Moss et al, 2001). The inclusion of stakeholders assures the comprehensiveness of the assessment (Schlumpf et al, 2001).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The reliability of citizen science in plan formulation: evidence from Askar, the Kingdom of Bahrain

El-Kholei

2020

OHI

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to address the following questions: To what extent is residents’ perception of the state of their environment consistent with findings based on samples from the field? Are the locals aware of the drivers and pressures that led to the present state of the environment? Are they aware of the impacts? If so, are they able to recommend responses? Design/methodology/approach To examine the extent to depend on citizens’ opinion in decision-making, the researcher juxtaposed results from data gathered and analysed from the field assessing the quality of the marine environment, coastal zone and levels of both noise and air pollution. The researcher collected datum from focus group meetings, questionnaire and review of newspapers and magazines. The researcher used Qualitative Data Analysis QDA software to analyse qualitative data. Findings The results of the survey and the focus group meetings indicated that the citizens’ perceptions are, to some extent, in line with the results that the Arabian Gulf University (AGU) team concluded from the field survey. Citizens do not feel the urgency of conserving water because the government has been meeting growing demand by increasing the supply of water. The participants identified drivers and pressures that led to the present state of the environment. They were not able to differentiate between the state of the environment and the impacts of environmental degradation. Originality/value Citizens’ opinion is a valuable tool as an input at the various stages of plan formulation. Citizens’ views can bring an issue to experts’ attention and shed light on the qualitative aspect, such as meaning or value, that the quantitative data fail to reveal. However, the planning process must not depend entirely on citizen’s views. Experts must combine citizens’ opinions with scientific facts that result from in situ monitoring and laboratory analysis.

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Untitled

Cited by 65 publications

References 31 publications

Threat and Anxiety in the Climate Debate—An Agent-Based Model to Investigate Climate Scepticism and Pro-Environmental Behaviour

Threat and Anxiety in the Climate Debate—An Agent-Based Model to Investigate Climate Scepticism and Pro-Environmental Behaviour

What if negative emission technologies fail at scale? Implications of the Paris Agreement for big emitting nations

The reliability of citizen science in plan formulation: evidence from Askar, the Kingdom of Bahrain

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