A cumulative emissions approach is increasingly used to inform mitigation policy. However, there are different interpretations of what '2°C' implies. Here it is argued that cost-optimization models, commonly used to inform policy, typically underplay the urgency of 2°C mitigation. The alignment within many scenarios of optimistic assumptions on negative emissions technologies (NETs), with implausibly early peak emission dates and incremental short-term mitigation, delivers outcomes commensurate with 2°C commitments. In contrast, considering equity and sociotechnical barriers to change, suggests a more challenging short-term agenda. To understand these different interpretations, short-term CO 2 trends of the largest CO 2 emitters, are assessed in relation to a constrained CO 2 budget, coupled with a 'what if' assumption that negative emissions technologies fail at scale. The outcomes raise profound questions around high-level framings of mitigation policy. The article concludes that applying even weak equity criteria, challenges the feasibility of maintaining a 50% chance of avoiding 2°C without urgent mitigation efforts in the short-term. This highlights a need for greater engagement with: (1) the equity dimension of the Paris Agreement, (2) the sensitivity of constrained carbon budgets to short-term trends and (3) the climate risks for society posed by an almost ubiquitous inclusion of NETs within 2°C scenarios. POLICY RELEVANCE Since the Paris meeting, there is increased awareness that most policy 'solutions' commensurate with 2°C include widespread deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs). Yet much less is understood about that option's feasibility, compared with near-term efforts to curb energy demand. Moreover, the many different ways in which key information is synthesized for policy makers, clouds the ability of policy makers to make informed decisions. This article presents an alternative approach to consider what the Paris Agreement implies, if NETs are unable to deliver more carbon sinks than sources. It illustrates the scale of the climate challenge for policy makers, particularly if the Agreement's aim to address 'equity' is accounted for. Here it is argued that much more attention needs to be paid to what CO 2 reductions can be achieved in the short-term, rather than taking a risk that could render the Paris Agreement's policy goals unachievable.
The impacts of climate change on the energy system are diverse; this article focuses on the potential effects on UK energy demand and the ramifications for national infrastructure building on the findings of the UK's 2012 Climate Change Risk Assessment. It reviews the available literature, where it exists, on the relationships among current energy demand, weather and climate change, and the implications for these relationships due to mitigation plans and potential adaptation responses. The review highlights the mechanisms by which future climate change, in particular changes in mean and extreme temperature, could affect the annual amount of UK energy demand and the seasonal, daily and spatial variation of the impacts. Published literature quantifying the effects of climate change on UK energy demand is limited; thus, where evidence is not available, information on the current relationship between weather and demand is combined with expert judgement to highlight potential demand responses to a changing climate without quantification. The impacts identified could have significant implications for the long-term planning of energy infrastructure and system operation and building design, depending on their magnitude, highlighting the need for further research in this area. (National Grid, 2014a). Historical relationships between economic growth and energy demand will likely be significantly altered by efforts to mitigate climate change as well as its inevitable impacts and our adaptation responses; thus, demand forecasters and those involved in infrastructure planning require an understanding of these ramifications for energy demand (McColl et al., 2012; National Grid, 2014a). Conor WalshParameters of demand considered here that are likely to be affected by climate change include (but are not limited to) the following: the size of annual energy demand, the size and timing of peak demand, the spatial distribution of demand and the sector affected (Chandramowli and Felder, 2014; ENA, 2011; National Grid, 2014a, 2014b, 2014c. These parameters of demand are among those considered when planning and managing energy infrastructure. The sizes of annual energy demand and peak demand influence the amount of supply and /or storage required, for example, the available capacity of electricity supply or the amount of gas and oil stored in the UK at any given time. The timing of peak demand influences planned maintenance and construction schedules and supply planning (ENA, 2011; National Grid, 2014b, 2014c. The regional distribution of demand influences the logistics of supply, including the topology and capacity of the electricity transmission and gas distribution networks (National Grid, 2014b, 2014c. In the case of electricity, the change in demand in urban against rural areas influences the effects seen by distribution network operators due to other confounding factors such as the urban heat island effect and the differences in network configuration (networked or radial) that service these areas (ENA, 2011). Finally, the s...
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