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Roger, François; Ratovonjato, Jocelyn; Vola, Paulette; Uilenberg, Gerrit

doi:10.1023/a:1010687502145

Cited by 32 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Mozambique has been speculated to be the most likely source of infection for the 1998 ASFV outbreaks occurring in Madagascar because the isolates from Mozambique were genotype II and identical across the B602L region (22). Before 1998, the island of Madagascar was free of the disease (21,22 Fragment size analysis has identifi ed B602L as the most variable genome region (15). The variable region of B602L contains amino acid tetramers that vary in number and type.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

African Swine Fever Virus Isolate, Georgia, 2007

Rowlands

Michaud²,

Heath³

et al. 2008

Emerg. Infect. Dis.

423

390

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

African Swine Fever Virus Isolate, Georgia, 2007

Rowlands

Michaud²,

Heath³

et al. 2008

Emerg. Infect. Dis.

423

390

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The farmers also often lack financial resources to restart production in the absence of compensation schemes. In countries such as Cote d'Ivoire and Madagascar, the introduction of ASF resulted in the loss of between 30 and 50 per cent of the pig population (El Hicheri et al 1998;Roger et al 2001).…”

Section: Impact Of African Swine Fevermentioning

confidence: 99%

African swine fever: how can global spread be prevented?

Costard

Wieland

Glanville

et al. 2009

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

411

382

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African swine fever (ASF) is a devastating haemorrhagic fever of pigs with mortality rates approaching 100 per cent. It causes major economic losses, threatens food security and limits pig production in affected countries. ASF is caused by a large DNA virus, African swine fever virus (ASFV). There is no vaccine against ASFV and this limits the options for disease control. ASF has been confined mainly to sub-Saharan Africa, where it is maintained in a sylvatic cycle and/or among domestic pigs. Wildlife hosts include wild suids and arthropod vectors. The relatively small numbers of incursions to other continents have proven to be very difficult to eradicate. Thus, ASF remained endemic in the Iberian peninsula until the mid-1990s following its introductions in 1957 and 1960 and the disease has remained endemic in Sardinia since its introduction in 1982. ASF has continued to spread within Africa to previously uninfected countries, including recently the Indian Ocean islands of Madagascar and Mauritius. Given the continued occurrence of ASF in sub-Saharan Africa and increasing global movements of people and products, it is not surprising that further transcontinental transmission has occurred. The introduction of ASF to Georgia in the Caucasus in 2007 and dissemination to neighbouring countries emphasizes the global threat posed by ASF and further increases the risks to other countries. We review the mechanisms by which ASFV is maintained within wildlife and domestic pig populations and how it can be transmitted. We then consider the risks for global spread of ASFV and discuss possibilities of how disease can be prevented.

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“…Outbreaks have been reported from almost all the countries of Africa that occur on or below the equator, as well as several countries of West Africa and the islands of Madagascar and Cape Verde [1,2]. The disease can impose severe limitations on pig production in endemic countries, as well as in adjoining areas, which may be at high risk of virus introduction [3,4]. The ASF virus (ASFV) has repeatedly spread outside Africa via the movement of pigs or pig products and continues to pose a considerable threat to pig production in the wider world [1].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial multi-criteria decision analysis to predict suitability for African swine fever endemicity in Africa

et al. 2014

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BackgroundAfrican swine fever (ASF) is endemic in several countries of Africa and may pose a risk to all pig producing areas on the continent. Official ASF reporting is often rare and there remains limited awareness of the continent-wide distribution of the disease.In the absence of accurate ASF outbreak data and few quantitative studies on the epidemiology of the disease in Africa, we used spatial multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to derive predictions of the continental distribution of suitability for ASF persistence in domestic pig populations as part of sylvatic or domestic transmission cycles. In order to incorporate the uncertainty in the relative importance of different criteria in defining suitability, we modelled decisions within the MCDA framework using a stochastic approach. The predictive performance of suitability estimates was assessed via a partial ROC analysis using ASF outbreak data reported to the OIE since 2005.ResultsOutputs from the spatial MCDA indicate that large areas of sub-Saharan Africa may be suitable for ASF persistence as part of either domestic or sylvatic transmission cycles. Areas with high suitability for pig to pig transmission (‘domestic cycles’) were estimated to occur throughout sub-Saharan Africa, whilst areas with high suitability for introduction from wildlife reservoirs (‘sylvatic cycles’) were found predominantly in East, Central and Southern Africa. Based on average AUC ratios from the partial ROC analysis, the predictive ability of suitability estimates for domestic cycles alone was considerably higher than suitability estimates for sylvatic cycles alone, or domestic and sylvatic cycles in combination.ConclusionsThis study provides the first standardised estimates of the distribution of suitability for ASF transmission associated with domestic and sylvatic cycles in Africa. We provide further evidence for the utility of knowledge-driven risk mapping in animal health, particularly in data-sparse environments.

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Cited by 32 publications

References 10 publications

African Swine Fever Virus Isolate, Georgia, 2007

African Swine Fever Virus Isolate, Georgia, 2007

African swine fever: how can global spread be prevented?

Spatial multi-criteria decision analysis to predict suitability for African swine fever endemicity in Africa

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