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Murphy, Sarah J.; Washington, Richard; Downing, Thomas E.; Martin, Randall V.; Ziervogel, Gina; Preston, Anthony; Todd, Martin C.; Butterfield, Ruth; Briden, J.C

doi:10.1023/a:1011160904414

Cited by 42 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Reviewers also encourage the development of more user-targeted information (Basher et al 2001, p. 8). Murphy et al (2001) state that a key starting point for work on improving forecast applications is an in-depth understanding of the user profile.…”

Section: Emerging Focus On the User Inmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying Underserved End-User Groups in the Provision of Climate Information

Archer¹

2003

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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Despite improvements in the science of climate forecasting, the application of forecasts faces key challenges. Prominent among such challenges is the fact that certain subgroupings of end users of climate information remain excluded from its potential benefits, or underserved. This paper suggests that such an omission may occur in part due to a lack of sophistication in the way the end user is viewed in the field of forecast applications research. End-user studies working both at generic and finer scales are cited, identifying reasons why certain user groups may be excluded from potential benefits of the forecast system. A case study in the Limpopo Province, South Africa, shows more specifically how one characteristic, namely gender, may determine such exclusion. The paper concludes by considering recommendations to improve inclusivity of climate information systems.

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Section: Emerging Focus On the User Inmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying Underserved End-User Groups in the Provision of Climate Information

Archer¹

2003

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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“…The microscale factors that are often considered include the internal institutional and regulatory context within which decisions are made (Hartmann et al, 2002;Orlove & Tosteson, 1999), organizational cultures, routines, and practices (Rayner, Lach, & Ingram, 2005), differences between sectors (Murphy et al, 2001), decision-making rules and models (Hill & Mjelde, 2002), livelihood constraints (Patt & Gwata, 2002;Vogel & O'Brien, 2006), and power differentials between different actors involved (Roncoli et al, 2009). If SCF do not fit within existing organizational, institutional, or sectoral decision-making contexts, the ability to realize their value may be limited.…”

Section: The Decision-making Contextmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the value of seasonal climate forecasts for decision‐making

Soares

Daly

Dessai

2018

WIREs Climate Change

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Seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) can support decision-making and thus help society cope with and prepare for climate variability and change. The demand for understanding the value and benefits of using SCF in decision-making processes can be associated with different logics. Two of these would be the need to justify public and private investment in the provision of SCF and demonstrating the gains and benefits of using SCF in specific decision-making contexts. This paper reviews the main factors influencing how SCF is (or can be) valued in supporting decision-making and the main methods and metrics currently used to perform such valuations. Our review results in four key findings: (a) there is a current emphasis on economic ex ante studies and the quantification of SCF value; (b) there are fundamental differences in how the value of SCF is defined and estimated across methods and approaches; (c) most valuation methods are unable to capture the differential benefits and risks of using SCF across spatiotemporal scales and groups; and (d) there is limited involvement of the decision-makers in the valuation process. The paper concludes by providing some guiding principles towards more effective valuations of SCF, notably the need for a wider diversity and integration of methodological approaches. These should particularly embrace ex-post, qualitative, and participatory approaches which allow co-evaluation with decision-makers so that more comprehensive and equitable SCF valuations can be developed in future. This article is categorized under:Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Institutions for Adaptationassessing value of climate information, climate services, seasonal climate forecasts, valuation methods, value of climate information for decision-making

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“…A reference bibliography (in Endnote format) on the web site includes some 3000 references (and will be updated periodically). The bibliography includes the references compiled by Gina Ziervogel in her dissertation on the use of seasonal climate forecasts; as such it is particularly relevant background material for this article (see Murphy et al 2001;Ziervogel & Calder 2003;Ziervogel 2004;Ziervogel & Downing 2004).…”

Section: Endnotesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-agent modelling of climate outlooks and food security on a community garden scheme in Limpopo, South Africa

Bharwani

Bithell

Downing

et al. 2005

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Seasonal climate outlooks provide one tool to help decision-makers allocate resources in anticipation of poor, fair or good seasons. The aim of the 'Climate Outlooks and Agent-Based Simulation of Adaptation in South Africa' project has been to investigate whether individuals, who adapt gradually to annual climate variability, are better equipped to respond to longer-term climate variability and change in a sustainable manner. Seasonal climate outlooks provide information on expected annual rainfall and thus can be used to adjust seasonal agricultural strategies to respond to expected climate conditions. A case study of smallholder farmers in a village in Vhembe district, Limpopo Province, South Africa has been used to examine how such climate outlooks might influence agricultural strategies and how this climate information can be improved to be more useful to farmers. Empirical field data has been collected using surveys, participatory approaches and computer-based knowledge elicitation tools to investigate the drivers of decision-making with a focus on the role of climate, market and livelihood needs. This data is used in an agent-based social simulation which incorporates household agents with varying adaptation options which result in differing impacts on crop yields and thus food security, as a result of using or ignoring the seasonal outlook. Key variables are the skill of the forecast, the social communication of the forecast and the range of available household and community-based risk coping strategies. This research provides a novel approach for exploring adaptation within the context of climate change.

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Untitled

Cited by 42 publications

References 40 publications

Identifying Underserved End-User Groups in the Provision of Climate Information

Identifying Underserved End-User Groups in the Provision of Climate Information

Assessing the value of seasonal climate forecasts for decision‐making

Multi-agent modelling of climate outlooks and food security on a community garden scheme in Limpopo, South Africa

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