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Sala, José Quereda; Olcina, Antonio Gil; Cuevas, Alejandra; Cantos, Jorge Olcina; Amorós, Álvarez; Chiva, Enrique Montón

doi:10.1023/a:1005688608044

Cited by 48 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Finally, it is noteworthy that most former studies that have analysed general air temperature trends in the study area (Quereda et al, 2000;Miró et al, 2006a;Brunet et al, 2007;Quereda et al, 2009;Bladé & Castro Díez, 2010;Del Río et al, 2012) reflected on more positive trends for Tmin than the present study. Here it is essential to bear in mind that many stations in the region, particularly those on the coast, have had to withstand major urban development processes carried out in bordering areas.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 53%

“…Availability of long temperature series in the Mediterranean region of the Iberian Peninsula has enabled the determination of general growing air temperature trends for this region by means of relative homogenisation processes (Quereda et al, 2000;Miró et al, 2006a;Brunet et al, 2007;Quereda et al, 2009;Bladé & Castro Díez, 2010;Del Río et al, 2012). However, the spatial density of these long series has not allowed a local scale to be obtained that identifies the fine-scale behaviour of climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Statistical downscaling and attribution of air temperature change patterns in the Valencia region (1948–2011)

Miró¹,

Navarro

Cantos

2015

Atmospheric Research

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This study is based on the statistical downscaling and spatial interpolation of highresolution temperatures (90 m) over the 1948-2011 period performed for the Valencia Region (east Iberian Peninsula) after considering local topographical factors in the finescale distribution of temperatures. The objective was to detect the areas that were potentially more vulnerable to air temperatures change. This allowed the detection of local climate change patterns, which were analysed and found to be consistent in spatial and temporal terms. These patterns indicate a more marked warming tendency in higher parts of reliefs and their slopes. However, this tendency is less pronounced in bottoms of valleys and on coastal plains, particularly for minimum temperatures, while the tendency for increasing maximum temperatures becomes more generalised. These patterns seem to connect well with regional changes in pressure fields, wind frequency, precipitation patterns and sea surface temperature.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 53%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical downscaling and attribution of air temperature change patterns in the Valencia region (1948–2011)

Miró¹,

Navarro

Cantos

2015

Atmospheric Research

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“…Sólo 3 series cubren todo el periodo 1948-2011 sin lagunas (y 6 con alguna). Es por ello que los estudios sobre cambio climático y tendencias térmicas realizados en el área se han circunscrito a tendencias globales en la región, sobre todo a partir de procesos de homogeneización relativa, utilizando las series más largas u óptimas disponibles (Quereda et al, 2000;Miró et al, 2006;Brunet et al, 2007;Quereda et al, 2009;Bladé y Castro Díez, 2010;Del Río et al, 2012). Pero ello no ha permitido hasta ahora descender a la escala local a lo largo del territorio, a fin de identificar patrones locales de cambio climático.…”

Section: Figura 2 Estaciones Con Registro De Temperaturas En La Comununclassified

“…Prácticamente todos los sectores litorales y llanos prelitorales de la región han sufrido una fortísima presión urbanística y expansión de usos urbanos y turísticos, junto con cambios en otros usos del suelo, en los últimos tres decenios, especialmente en el periodo 1992-2007 (Burriel, 2009;Membrado Tena, 2011;Martí Ciriquián y Nolasco Girugeda, 2011;Martí Ciriquián y Ponce Herrero, 2011). Se ha hecho notar además que, en el pasado (series más largas), hubo una política en la región de ubicar la mayoría de observatorios en las periferias de las poblaciones, de modo que poco a poco éstos han ido siendo absorbidos por aquellas (Quereda et al, 2000(Quereda et al, y 2009. Es el caso de un gran número de estaciones manuales, coincidiendo además las áreas con una mayor densidad y longitud de series disponibles con aquellas más afectadas por la expansión urbanística y cambios en usos del suelo.…”

Section: Figura 7 Configuración Modular De La Red Neuronal Utilizada unclassified

Reconstrucción de la señal térmica local en la Comunidad Valenciana entre 1948 y 2011 a partir de un downscaling estadístico mediante una red neuronal artificial: detección de patrones locales de cambio

Miró¹,

Navarro²,

Cantos³

2016

BAGE

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Para el área de la Comunidad Valenciana (España) se dispone de más de 300 series de temperatura diaria de las que sólo 3 cubren por completo el periodo 1948-2011, y una mayoría menos de la mitad de dicho periodo. El presente trabajo busca reconstruir todas las señales térmicas locales que faltan en el periodo completo 1948-2011 a partir del reanálisis NCEP/NCAR en dicho periodo. Para ello se realiza un downscaling estadístico con los datos observados por medio de una ANN. Ello ha permitido detectar patrones locales de cambio climático que han sido consistentes a lo largo del espacio y tiempo. Estos patrones señalan una tendencia mayor al calentamiento en las partes altas de los relieves y áreas de montaña,y menor en el fondo de los valles. El valor del estudio reside en la detección de las áreas potencialmente más vulnerables al cambio térmico, más que en una determinación exacta de una magnitud global de cambio térmico.

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“…Indeed, the area is very sensitive to climate change at short (decadal) and long (millennial) time scales. In Spain, Quereda Sala et al (2000) reported an increase of the mean annual temperature of 0.5 • C to 1.2 • C between 1870 and 1996. A similar trend is observed in France (Moisselin et al, 2002).…”

Section: Published By Copernicus Publications On Behalf Of the Europementioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical downscaling of the French Mediterranean climate: assessment for present and projection in an anthropogenic scenario

Lavaysse

Vrac

Drobinski

et al. 2012

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The Mediterranean basin is a particularly vulnerable region to climate change, featuring a sharply contrasted climate between the North and South and governed by a semi-enclosed sea with pronounced surrounding topography covering parts of the Europe, Africa and Asia regions. The physiographic specificities contribute to produce mesoscale atmospheric features that can evolve to high-impact weather systems such as heavy precipitation, wind storms, heat waves and droughts. The evolution of these meteorological extremes in the context of global warming is still an open question, partly because of the large uncertainty associated with existing estimates produced by global climate models (GCM) with coarse horizontal resolution (~200 km). Downscaling climatic information at a local scale is, thus, needed to improve the climate extreme prediction and to provide relevant information for vulnerability and adaptation studies. In this study, we investigate wind, temperature and precipitation distributions for past recent climate and future scenarios at eight meteorological stations in the French Mediterranean region using one statistical downscaling model, referred as the "Cumulative Distribution Function transform" (CDF-t) approach. A thorough analysis of the uncertainty associated with statistical downscaling and bi-linear interpolation of large-scale wind speed, temperature and rainfall from reanalyses (ERA-40) and three GCM historical simulations, has been conducted and quantified in terms of Kolmogorov-Smirnov scores. CDF-t produces a more accurate and reliable local wind speed, temperature and rainfall. Generally, wind speed, temperature and rainfall CDF obtained with CDF-t are significantly similar with the observed CDF, even though CDF-t performance may vary from one station to another due to the sensitivity of the driving large-scale fields or local impact. CDF-t has then been applied to climate simulations of the 21st century under B1 and A2 scenarios for the three GCMs. As expected, the most striking trend is obtained for temperature (median and extremes), whereas for wind speed and rainfall, the evolution of the distributions is weaker. Mean surface wind speed and wind extremes seem to decrease in most locations, whereas the mean rainfall value decreases while the extremes seem to slightly increase. This is consistent with previous studies, but if this trend is clear with wind speed and rainfall data interpolated from GCM simulations at station locations, conversely CDF-t produces a more uncertain trend.

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Cited by 48 publications

References 22 publications

Statistical downscaling and attribution of air temperature change patterns in the Valencia region (1948–2011)

Statistical downscaling and attribution of air temperature change patterns in the Valencia region (1948–2011)

Reconstrucción de la señal térmica local en la Comunidad Valenciana entre 1948 y 2011 a partir de un downscaling estadístico mediante una red neuronal artificial: detección de patrones locales de cambio

Statistical downscaling of the French Mediterranean climate: assessment for present and projection in an anthropogenic scenario

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