Comparing COVID-19 vaccine allocation strategies in India: A mathematical modelling study

Foy, Brody H.; Wahl, Brian; Mehta, Kayur; Shet, Anita; Menon, Gautam I.; Britto, Carl

doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.12.075

Cited by 212 publications

(185 citation statements)

References 38 publications

(32 reference statements)

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“…In contrast, the mortality-minimizing strategies are relatively robust to variations in vaccine efficacy. Our modeling of mortality-minimizing strategies led to consistent recommendations to prioritize adults aged 50 years and older across efficacy values, in line with prior work [36]. This recommendation is robust because of the dramatic differences in case-fatality rates by age.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 76%

Optimal Allocation of the Limited COVID-19 Vaccine Supply in South Korea

Shim

2021

JCM

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Initial supply of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccine may be limited, necessitating its effective use. Herein, an age-structured model of COVID-19 spread in South Korea is parameterized to understand the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19. The model determines optimal vaccine allocation for minimizing infections, deaths, and years of life lost while accounting for population factors, such as country-specific age distribution and contact structure, and various levels of vaccine efficacy. A transmission-blocking vaccine should be prioritized in adults aged 20–49 years and those older than 50 years to minimize the cumulative incidence and mortality, respectively. A strategy to minimize years of life lost involves the vaccination of adults aged 40–69 years, reflecting the relatively high case-fatality rates and years of life lost in this age group. An incidence-minimizing vaccination strategy is highly sensitive to vaccine efficacy, and vaccines with lower efficacy should be administered to teenagers and adults aged 50–59 years. Consideration of age-specific contact rates and vaccine efficacy is critical to optimize vaccine allocation. New recommendations for COVID-19 vaccines under consideration by the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are mainly based on a mortality-minimizing allocation strategy.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 76%

Optimal Allocation of the Limited COVID-19 Vaccine Supply in South Korea

Shim

2021

JCM

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“…Authors came to the conclusion that older age groups should be prioritized first. The prioritization of older age groups led to the greatest relative reduction in death regardless of vaccine efficacy [ 42 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Targeted COVID-19 Vaccination (TAV-COVID) Considering Limited Vaccination Capacities—An Agent-Based Modeling Evaluation

Jahn¹,

Sroczynski²,

Bicher

et al. 2021

Vaccines

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(1) Background: The Austrian supply of COVID-19 vaccine is limited for now. We aim to provide evidence-based guidance to the authorities in order to minimize COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths in Austria. (2) Methods: We used a dynamic agent-based population model to compare different vaccination strategies targeted to the elderly (65 ≥ years), middle aged (45–64 years), younger (15–44 years), vulnerable (risk of severe disease due to comorbidities), and healthcare workers (HCW). First, outcomes were optimized for an initially available vaccine batch for 200,000 individuals. Second, stepwise optimization was performed deriving a prioritization sequence for 2.45 million individuals, maximizing the reduction in total hospitalizations and deaths compared to no vaccination. We considered sterilizing and non-sterilizing immunity, assuming a 70% effectiveness. (3) Results: Maximum reduction of hospitalizations and deaths was achieved by starting vaccination with the elderly and vulnerable followed by middle-aged, HCW, and younger individuals. Optimizations for vaccinating 2.45 million individuals yielded the same prioritization and avoided approximately one third of deaths and hospitalizations. Starting vaccination with HCW leads to slightly smaller reductions but maximizes occupational safety. (4) Conclusion: To minimize COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths, our study shows that elderly and vulnerable persons should be prioritized for vaccination until further vaccines are available.

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“…The model we developed in this study is different from most models developed in many countries that prioritize vaccination for the elderly, such as simulated scenarios for India [ 2 ], United States, Germany, and South Korea [ 17 ]. Those models showed that prioritizing COVID-19 vaccine allocation for older populations (i.e., >60 years) resulted in the most significant relative reduction in deaths and could maximize years of remaining life expectancy.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The unprecedented pandemic caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) leads to a global race to find the most effective vaccine and deliver it most efficiently [ 1 , 2 ]. However, when the COVID-19 vaccination aims at achieving global herd immunity, an estimated 5.5 billion out of a total of 7.8 billion world population would demand 11 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines [ 3 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Targeted Vaccine Allocation Could Increase the COVID-19 Vaccine Benefits Amidst Its Lack of Availability: A Mathematical Modeling Study in Indonesia

et al. 2021

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With a limited number of vaccines and healthcare capacity shortages, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, vaccination programs should seek the most efficient strategy to reduce the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemics. This study aims at assessing several scenarios of delivering the vaccine to people in Indonesia. We develop a model for several scenarios of delivering vaccines: without vaccination, fair distribution, and targeted distribution to five and eight districts with the highest COVID-19 incidence in West Java, one of the most COVID-19-affected regions in Indonesia. We calculate the needs of vaccines and healthcare staff for the program, then simulate the model for the initial 4-month and one-year scenarios. A one-year vaccination program would require 232,000 inoculations per day by 4833 vaccinators. Targeted vaccine allocation based on the burden of COVID-19 cases could benefit the COVID-19 vaccination program by lowering at least 5000 active cases. The benefits would increase by improving the number of vaccines and healthcare staff. Amidst lacking available vaccines, targeted vaccine allocation based on the burden of COVID-19 cases could increase the benefit of the COVID-19 vaccination program but still requires progressive efforts to improve healthcare capacity and vaccine availability for optimal protection for people.

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Comparing COVID-19 vaccine allocation strategies in India: A mathematical modelling study

Cited by 212 publications

References 38 publications

Optimal Allocation of the Limited COVID-19 Vaccine Supply in South Korea

Optimal Allocation of the Limited COVID-19 Vaccine Supply in South Korea

Targeted COVID-19 Vaccination (TAV-COVID) Considering Limited Vaccination Capacities—An Agent-Based Modeling Evaluation

Targeted Vaccine Allocation Could Increase the COVID-19 Vaccine Benefits Amidst Its Lack of Availability: A Mathematical Modeling Study in Indonesia

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