Targeted Vaccine Allocation Could Increase the COVID-19 Vaccine Benefits Amidst Its Lack of Availability: A Mathematical Modeling Study in Indonesia

Abstract

With a limited number of vaccines and healthcare capacity shortages, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, vaccination programs should seek the most efficient strategy to reduce the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemics. This study aims at assessing several scenarios of delivering the vaccine to people in Indonesia. We develop a model for several scenarios of delivering vaccines: without vaccination, fair distribution, and targeted distribution to five and eight districts with the highest COVID-19 incidence in West Java, one of the most COVID-19-affected regions in Indonesia. We calculate the needs of vaccines and healthcare staff for the program, then simulate the model for the initial 4-month and one-year scenarios. A one-year vaccination program would require 232,000 inoculations per day by 4833 vaccinators. Targeted vaccine allocation based on the burden of COVID-19 cases could benefit the COVID-19 vaccination program by lowering at least 5000 active cases. The benefits would increase by improving the number of vaccines and healthcare staff. Amidst lacking available vaccines, targeted vaccine allocation based on the burden of COVID-19 cases could increase the benefit of the COVID-19 vaccination program but still requires progressive efforts to improve healthcare capacity and vaccine availability for optimal protection for people.

Models of COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation: a systematic literature search and narrative review

“…Two studies recommended prioritising vaccination using serological testing to prioritise antibody-negative individuals compared to not using serological testing [ 41 , 44 ]. Two studies investigated allocation between geographic areas of disease burden—the first recommended that the geographic area with lower disease burden should be prioritised for vaccination, whereas the second recommended that the geographic area with the highest disease burden should be prioritised [ 45 – 46 ].…”

“…Five of the included articles were single-country studies modelling LMIC settings [ 14 , 17 , 19 , 22 , 46 ]. Four studies modelled UMIC settings [ 21 , 23 , 25 , 33 ] .…”

“…There were two studies modelling allocation of vaccines between geographical areas within the same country [ 45 , 46 ]. One study concluded that geographical areas of high disease burden should be prioritised for vaccination [ 46 ], while the other concluded that the geographical areas of low disease burden should be prioritised [ 45 ].…”

Indonesian Hotels’ Dynamic Capability under the Risks of COVID-19

“…The faster the jabs, the earlier the dream to new-normal life arrives, and thus, requires immediate pressure from the community to do the job (Smith 2021). Even when there is a vaccine shortage, a targeted vaccination in Indonesia seems to do the job just right (Fuady et al 2021). This strategy faces news misinterpretation, hoaxes, fallacy, and other misinformation (Dzinamarira et al 2021;Sallam et al 2021;French et al 2020), and thus requires extensive communication strategy from all levels of communities (Adebisi et al 2021;Alwi et al 2021;Kurniansyah et al 2021).…”

“…The confusion of COVID-19 to early risk management in the tourism sector is evident (Radic et al 2020), thus requiring new approaches (Škare et al 2021). Along with the speed of the vaccination program (Smith 2021;Fuady et al 2021), aggressive marketing efforts have to be established to secure the business position (Lee et al 2021). This study proposes that an internally innovative environment may ensure the competitive edge in the transition to new-normal (Caballero-Morales 2021).…”