Projections of industrial water withdrawal under shared socioeconomic pathways and climate mitigation scenarios

Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hanasaki, Naota; Masui, Toshihiko

doi:10.1007/s11625-016-0392-2

Cited by 31 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…As a result, comparisons to other SSP studies of global water demands are difficult, although some sector‐by‐sector comparisons can be made (cf. Alcamo et al, ; Bijl et al, ; Fujimori et al, ; Hanasaki et al, , ; Hejazi et al, , ; Mouratiadou et al, ; Shiklomanov, ; Shen et al, ; Wada et al, ). Agricultural sector withdrawals are on the lower side of existing projections (Figure S1).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since the introduction of the SSPs, several studies have assessed such assumptions (cf. Bijl et al, 2016;Fujimori et al, 2016;Hanasaki et al, 2013aHanasaki et al, , 2013bMouratiadou et al, 2016;Wada et al, 2016). However, these studies have largely focused on individual sectors, predate the introduction of the SSP scenarios to the IAM community, and/or lack the ability to endogenously calculate water demands based upon cost and availability of water supplies.…”

Section: Water Resources Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Water Sector Assumptions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in an Integrated Modeling Framework

Graham

Davies

Hejazi

et al. 2018

Water Resources Research

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The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were developed without explicit assumptions for the future of the water sector; therefore, projections of future water demands based on the SSPs often lack a treatment of water technology assumptions that is consistent with the SSP storylines. This study has developed a set of qualitative and quantitative assumptions for future water sector technological advancements in the agricultural, electricity, manufacturing, and municipal sectors within the SSPs and then applied the resulting scenarios to an integrated assessment model to permit analysis of future water demand in a water‐constrained world. These scenarios are then compared to another set that excludes the adoption of water‐efficient technologies. Water demand impacts of individual SSP assumption categories are analyzed to determine scenario‐by‐scenario changes. By 2100, global annual water demands range from 3,560 to 6,600 km3. The results show that (1) technological change in the water sector can act to reduce water demand in a water limited world by up to 32% in 2100 in the SSP scenarios, (2) the most sustainable scenario produces end‐of‐century water withdrawals lower than 2010 values, (3) low‐income regions will likely be one of the largest drivers of future water demands and exhibit the greatest sensitivity to highly‐efficient water technologies, and (4) nonwater sector SSP assumptions have significant and differing impacts on demands across SSP scenarios that act to alter global water demands.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Water Resources Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water Sector Assumptions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in an Integrated Modeling Framework

Graham

Davies

Hejazi

et al. 2018

Water Resources Research

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“…In contrast to PE models, which include representation of a limited number of economic sectors (e.g., agriculture, livestock, and forestry in agro-economic PE models), CGE models include representation of all global economic sectors and thus can provide insight into the macro-economic implications of future policy and resource developments. Many global nexus solution frameworks exist including GCAM [81]; AIM/CGE (Asia Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium; [135,136]), GTAP-BIO-W (Global Trade Analysis Project model with Biofuels and Water; [137]), IGSM-WRS (Integrated Global System Model-Water Resource System; [138]), ANEMI [139]; and MuSIASEM (Multi-scale integrated analysis of societal and ecosystem metabolism; [140]).…”

Section: Global Integrated Nexus Solution Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated Solutions for the Water-Energy-Land Nexus: Are Global Models Rising to the Challenge?

Johnson

Burek

Byers

et al. 2019

Water

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Increasing human demands for water, energy, food and materials, are expected to accentuate resource supply challenges over the coming decades. Experience suggests that long-term strategies for a single sector could yield both trade-offs and synergies for other sectors. Thus, long-term transition pathways for linked resource systems should be informed using nexus approaches. Global integrated assessment models can represent the synergies and trade-offs inherent in the exploitation of water, energy and land (WEL) resources, including the impacts of international trade and climate policies. In this study, we review the current state-of-the-science in global integrated assessment modeling with an emphasis on how models have incorporated integrated WEL solutions. A large-scale assessment of the relevant literature was performed using online databases and structured keyword search queries. The results point to the following main opportunities for future research and model development: (1) improving the temporal and spatial resolution of economic models for the energy and water sectors;(2) balancing energy and land requirements across sectors; (3) integrated representation of the role of distribution infrastructure in alleviating resource challenges; (4) modeling of solution impacts on downstream environmental quality; (5) improved representation of the implementation challenges stemming from regional financial and institutional capacity; (6) enabling dynamic multi-sectoral vulnerability and adaptation needs assessment; and (7) the development of fully-coupled assessment frameworks based on consistent, scalable, and regionally-transferable platforms. Improved database management and computational power are needed to address many of these modeling challenges at a global-scale. IntroductionWater, energy and land (WEL) represent fundamental resources needed for human survival and are critical for supporting economic development and ecosystem services, such as flood control, carbon sequestration and biodiversity. Socioeconomic and climate trends are rapidly increasing global demands for WEL resources. Based on the "middle-of-the-road" Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) scenario in which population reaches about 9 billion in 2050, food demand is projected to increase on average 74% (59-98%) from 2005 to 2050 [1], primary energy supply will increase on average 92% (81-113%) [2], agricultural land is projected to increase on average 5% (3-7%) [3], and global water demand is projected to increase about 50% [4,5]. Meanwhile, WEL resources are regionally constrained for physical or economic reasons and several global "mega-trends", such as climate change, urbanization, and globalization, are expected to have regional impacts that may either exacerbate or alleviate resource constraints and the associated supply challenges [6]. There is an urgent need to better understand the impacts and vulnerability of human populations and ecosystems to future socioeconomic and climatic change as well as to identify sustainable strategies for m...

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“…Climate policy affects various SDG-related sectors, such as energy security [3,4], air quality [5,6], human health [7,8], land management [9,10], food security [11][12][13], water scarcity [14,15], and biodiversity [16]. In addition, the timing of climate change mitigation and the implementation of policy instruments can change the multi-sectoral consequences.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying trade-offs and co-benefits of climate policies in China to align policies with SDGs and achieve the 2 °C goal

Liu

Fujimori

Toko

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The Paris Agreement set long-term global climate goals to pursue stabilization of the global mean temperature increase at below 2°C (the so-called 2°C goal). Individual countries submitted their own short-term targets, mostly for the year 2030. Meanwhile, the UN's sustainable development goals (SDGs) were designed to help set multiple societal goals with respect to socioeconomic development, the environment, and other issues. Climate policies can lead to intended or unintended consequences in various sectors, but these types of side effects rarely have been studied in China, where climate policies will play an important role in global greenhouse gas emissions and sustainable development is a major goal. This study identified the extent to which climate policies in line with the 2°C goal could have multi-sectoral consequences in China. Carbon constraints in China in the 2Deg scenario are set to align with the global 2°C target based on the emissions per capita convergence principle. Carbon policies for NDC pledges as well as policies in China regarding renewables, air pollution control, and land management were also simulated. The results show that energy security and air quality have cobenefits related to climate policies, whereas food security and land resources experienced negative side effects (trade-offs). Near-term climate actions were shown to help reduce these trade-offs in the midterm. A policy package that included food and land subsidies also helped achieve climate targets while avoiding the adverse side effects caused by the mitigation policies. The findings should help policymakers in China develop win-win policies that do not negatively affect some sectors, which could potentially enhance their ability to take climate actions to realize the global 2°C goal within the context of sustainable development.

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Projections of industrial water withdrawal under shared socioeconomic pathways and climate mitigation scenarios

Cited by 31 publications

References 41 publications

Water Sector Assumptions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in an Integrated Modeling Framework

Water Sector Assumptions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in an Integrated Modeling Framework

Integrated Solutions for the Water-Energy-Land Nexus: Are Global Models Rising to the Challenge?

Identifying trade-offs and co-benefits of climate policies in China to align policies with SDGs and achieve the 2 °C goal

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