Dynamic Modeling of Crimean Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Virus (CCHFV) Spread to Test Control Strategies

Hoch, Thierry; Breton, Éric Le; Vatansever, Zati

doi:10.1093/jme/tjy035

Cited by 11 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Hare is considered to be one of the main wildlife reservoir for CCHFV [ 1 ], playing a pivotal role in the epidemiology of the disease [ 50 ]. The European hare is the most common hare species in Europe, and it has one of the largest range of any mammal species [ 51 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk of Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) introduction and spread in CCHF-free countries in southern and Western Europe: A semi-quantitative risk assessment

Fanelli

Buonavoglia

2021

One Health

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Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a severe tick-borne viral zoonotic disease caused by Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV). The disease is usually asymptomatic in domestic and wild animals, both of which may act as reservoirs of the virus. CCHF is endemic in parts of Africa, Asia, the Middle East and Eastern Europe. During the last decade, the emergence or re-emergence of CCHF was described in several countries in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, with an increasing risk of extension into new areas. Given the public health importance, this study undertakes a semi-quantitative risk assessment to analyse the likelihood of entry and exposure of CCHFV into 9 CCHF-free countries in Southern and Western Europe. Based on a framework outlining the probability of the virus entry and exposure, the risk estimates were assessed for each individual country. The risk assessment was performed using information from public databases and the available scientific literature. The likelihood of entry was conducted considering 3 main pathways: infected tick vectors, wildlife and livestock. The likelihood of exposure was assessed considering the probability of survival of the infected ticks once introduced in CCHF-free countries (depending on abiotic and biotic factors), and the exposure of resident uninfected susceptible ticks to infected imported wildlife and livestock. The risk estimates (combined CCHFV introduction and exposure) were low for the majority of the countries (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Slovenia and Switzerland) and medium for France and Italy, if accounting only for animal health consequences. Considering the public health consequences only, the risks were rated low for all the countries, except for Italy where it was assessed to be medium.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk of Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) introduction and spread in CCHF-free countries in southern and Western Europe: A semi-quantitative risk assessment

Fanelli

Buonavoglia

2021

One Health

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“…We also assume that systemic infection occurs at the beginning of the blood meal after following the authors in [48]. To accommodate the systemic and non-systemic infection we pursue the efforts done in [48,47,33]. In order to include the CCHFV transmission through co-feeding, we adhere to the following assumptions: (i) It is proportional to the number of infected ticks, (ii) It is proportional to the number of susceptible ticks, (iii) Constant number of rodents or the small mammals are being bitten for the blood meals.…”

Section: Model Formulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…after following [49,33], where T S , T E , T I are susceptible, exposed and infected ticks respectively, ν T is the strength of density-dependence in birth rate, ω 1 and ω 2 are the weightage of contributions of rodent and livestock populations on the growth of ticks, σ T is detachment rate of tick and ω T is mean no of eggs laid by an adult female tick, Ro is the constant number of total rodents and L is the total number of livestock. We incorporate the rodent-tick transmission cycle without explicitly deriving the equations of different stages of ticks.…”

Section: Model Formulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to [32], high prevalence values in ruminants in Turkey depicts the role of these species to identify the high-risk areas. Additionally, according to the sensitivity analysis of R 0 performed in [33], the input of total host density acquires 28% of the total variability and the contribution of hare density is 16% and for the same for the cattle population is 12%.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Mathematical modelling provides a tool to test different scenarios and to analyse the factors influencing the spread of CCHF. While the number of mathematical models for vector-borne diseases has generally increased, the number of mathematical models for CCHFV in particular is still limited [45,46,47,33].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Ticks on the run: A mathematical model of Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever (CCHF)-key factors for transmission

Bhowmick¹,

Kasi²,

Gethmann³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a tick-borne zoonotic disease caused by the Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV). Ticks belonging to the genus Hyalomma are the main vectors and reservoir for the virus. It is maintained in nature in an endemic vertebrate-tick-vertebrate cycle. CCHFV is prevalent in wide geographical areas including Asia, Africa, South-Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Over the last decade, several outbreaks of CCHFV have been observed in Europe, mainly in Mediterranean countries. Due to the high case/fatality ratio of CCHFV in human sometimes, it is of great importance for public health. Climate change and the invasion of CCHFV vectors in Central Europe suggest that the establishment of the transmission in Central Europe may be possible in future. We developed a compartment-based nonlinear Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) system to model the disease transmission cycle including blood sucking ticks, livestock and human. Sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number R 0 shows that decreasing in the tick survival time is an efficient method to eradicate the disease. The model supports us in understanding the

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Seasonality of host-seekingIxodes ricinusnymph abundance in relation to climate

Hoch

Madouasse

Jacquot

et al. 2022

Preprint

Self Cite

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There is growing concern about climate change and its impact on human health. Specifically, global warming could increase the probability of emerging infectious diseases, notably because of changes in the geographical and seasonal distributions of disease vectors such as mosquitoes and ticks. For example, the range of Ixodes ricinus, the most common and widespread tick species in Europe, is currently expanding northward and at higher altitudes. However, little is known about the seasonal variation in tick abundance in different climates. Seasonality of I. ricinus is often based on expert opinions while field surveys are usually limited in time. Our objective was to describe seasonal variations in I. ricinus abundance under different climates. To this end, a seven-year longitudinal study, with monthly collections of I. ricinus host-seeking nymphs, was carried out in France, in six locations corresponding to different climates. Tick data were log-transformed and grouped between years so as to obtain seasonal variations for a typical year. Daily average temperature was measured during the study period. Seasonal patterns of nymph abundance were established for the six different locations using linear harmonic regression. Model parameters were estimated separately for each location. Seasonal patterns appeared different depending on the climate considered. Western temperate sites showed an early spring peak, a summer minimum and a moderate autumn and winter abundance. More continental sites showed a later peak in spring, and a minimum in winter. The peak occurred in summer for the mountainous site, with an absence of ticks in winter. In all cases except the mountainous site, the timing of the spring peak could be related to the sum of degree days since the beginning of the year. Winter abundance was positively correlated to the corresponding temperature. Our results highlight clear patterns in the different sites corresponding to different climates, which allow further forecast of tick seasonality under changing climate conditions.

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Dynamic Modeling of Crimean Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Virus (CCHFV) Spread to Test Control Strategies

Cited by 11 publications

References 29 publications

Risk of Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) introduction and spread in CCHF-free countries in southern and Western Europe: A semi-quantitative risk assessment

Risk of Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) introduction and spread in CCHF-free countries in southern and Western Europe: A semi-quantitative risk assessment

Ticks on the run: A mathematical model of Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever (CCHF)-key factors for transmission

Seasonality of host-seekingIxodes ricinusnymph abundance in relation to climate

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