Why did life expectancy decline in the United States in 2015? A gender-specific analysis

Abstract

In 2015, age-adjusted mortality rates increased for 8 of the 10 leading causes of death in the United States. As a result, life expectancy declined by 0.17 years for both women and men. The decline could be just an anomaly, or it could represent the start of a new trend of stagnation or decline in life expectancy, as some scholars have warned. The first step is to determine the sources of the decline. In this study we analyze the contribution of specific causes of death to the decline in men’s versus women’s life expectancy, as well as the mechanisms that generated the decline. With regard to mechanisms, we examine whether the decline in life expectancy resulted from reductions in the average age at death for most causes of death, or from a greater risk of dying of causes that disproportionately affect the young and middle-aged. Using CDC mortality data, we construct life tables for men and women separately, based on 20 different underlying causes of death. We find that men’s reduction in life expectancy was attributable primarily to changes in midlife mortality, with a greater risk of dying of causes such as accidental poisoning or homicide. The reduction in women’s life expectancy, on the other hand, was attributable primarily to changes in old-age mortality, where the mean age at death for most causes (such as heart disease and mental illnesses) was lower in 2015 than it was in 2014. These gender-specific mechanisms that contributed to the decline in life expectancy are common to the major racial/ethnic groups, but the magnitude of the decline differs greatly across racial/ethnic groups. Future research can use the tools provided here to investigate in more detail how the gender-specific mechanisms of the 2015 decline differ by race.

The transition to fatherhood and the health of men

“…While childlessness may decrease weight-related morbidity, with the absence of social control and identity mechanisms accompanying parenthood, childless men could be at greater risk of becoming alcohol and substance users. Given the recent rise in male mid-life mortality in the United States (Acciai and Firebaugh 2017;Woolf et al 2018), we hope that these findings will enhance our ability to support wellbeing among men who are soon approaching mid-life.…”

Why is life expectancy in England and Wales ‘stalling’?

“…Life expectancy is the most important social statistic that any country produces about itself and it is often an early sign of wider societal problems, as in the former USSR in the 1980s17 or in the USA more recently. American life expectancy at birth stalled between 2010 and 2014 and, in 2015, actually declined, with rising rates from causes that have been described as ‘deaths of despair’18 concentrated among the poor in states that had experienced the greatest economic and social decline 19. This has political consequences; those counties in which life expectancy stagnated or declined experienced the largest increases in Republican votes in the 2016 Presidential election 20…”

Unexplained periods of higher deaths contribute to marginal changes in health care demand and health insurance costs: International perspectives

“…The use of 2015 for the United States is based on the observation that 2015 saw an unusual decrease in life expectancy due to higher than expected deaths . This was also observed to occur in the United Kingdom .…”