Why is life expectancy in England and Wales ‘stalling’?

Abstract

Several independent analyses, by both epidemiologists and actuaries, have concluded that the previous rate of improvement of life expectancy in England and Wales has now slowed markedly, and at older ages may even be reversing. However, although these findings have led the pension industry to reduce estimates of future liabilities, they have failed to elicit any significant concern in the Department of Health and Social Care. In this essay, we review the evidence on changing life expectancy, noting that the problems are greatest among older women. We then estimate the gap between what life expectancy is now and what it might have been had previous trends continued. At age 85, the gap is 0.34 years for women and 0.23 for men. We argue that recent changes cannot be dismissed as a temporary aberration. While the causes of this phenomenon are contested, there is growing evidence to point to the austerity policies implemented in recent years as at least a partial explanation. We conclude by calling for a fully independent enquiry to ascertain what is happening to life expectancy in England and Wales and what should be done about it.

Precarious Aging: Insecurity and Risk in Late Life

“…This includes how disadvantage may accumulate throughout the life course and how longevity may differ between population groups and between particular cities or rural areas. The emphasis on positive models of aging also tends to overlook warning signs that gains in longevity have started to stall in countries such as the United Kingdom and the United States . The concern when exploring contemporary experiences of aging, and particularly the experiences of older people from disadvantaged groups, is that without proper recognition and intervention, the lives of a growing number of older people may become characterized by precarity rather than by health and success.…”

Rise in mortality in England and Wales in first seven weeks of 2018

“…We and others have already called for an urgent investigation by the House of Commons health select committee 14. We did this because the Department of Health and Social Care is not taking the slowdown in improvements in mortality seriously.…”

Reversals in life expectancy in high income countries?

“…In a similar way, a prolonged slow-down in life expectancy improvements in the UK has been attributed to the negative health consequences of austerity policies disproportionally affecting the poorest older people 7. It is also notable that high life expectancies in the UK and many other high income countries (including the Nordic countries with strong pro-equitable social policies) coexist with large or even increasing health disparities 89…”