Impacts of a Rapidly Declining Mountain Snowpack on Streamflow Timing in Canada’s Fraser River Basin

Kang, Dong-In; Gao, Huilin; Shi, Xiaogang; Islam, Siraj ul; Déry, Stephen J.

doi:10.1038/srep19299

Cited by 50 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…As with other midlatitude rivers [ Bindoff et al , ], the Fraser River's discharge volume and variability have increased over the last several decades [ Déry et al , ; Morrison et al , ]. Following projected patterns of climate change, the Fraser River basin is increasingly shifting from a snow‐dominated to rain‐snow hybrid system [ Kang et al , ]. Using 38 years of flow data collected concurrently at 55 hydrometric gauge stations throughout the watershed, we use a novel analytical approach to examine whether this large river exhibits signals of long‐term climate dampening.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

River networks dampen long‐term hydrological signals of climate change

Chezik

Anderson

Moore

2017

Geophysical Research Letters

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River networks may dampen local hydrologic signals of climate change through the aggregation of upstream climate portfolio assets. Here we examine this hypothesis using flow and climate trend estimates (1970–2007) at 55 hydrometric gauge stations and across their contributing watersheds' within the Fraser River basin in British Columbia, Canada. Using a null hypothesis framework, we compared our observed attenuation of river flow trends as a function of increasing area and climate trend diversity, with null‐simulated estimates to gauge the likelihood and strength of our observations. We found the Fraser River reduced variability in downstream long‐term discharge by >91%, with >3.1 times the attenuation than would be expected under null simulation. Although the strength of dampening varied seasonally, our findings indicate that large free‐flowing rivers offer a powerful and largely unappreciated process of climate change mitigation. River networks that integrate a diverse climate portfolio can dampen local extremes and offer climate change relief to riverine biota.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

River networks dampen long‐term hydrological signals of climate change

Chezik

Anderson

Moore

2017

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Over the last century , an earlier onset of the half-annual streamflow volume date was detected in one subbasin of the FRB (Stellako, 9-day advance) as well as at the major outlet to the basin at Hope (6-day advance). The latter conclusion was reinforced by Kang et al (2016), who noted a statistically significant advance, by ∼ 10 days, of the APF at FraserHope over the 1949-2006 period. Recent decadal trends in the magnitude of annual and/or seasonal mean streamflow at gauge stations in BC and western Canada have been investigated by several authors (Pike et al, 2010;Bawden et al, 2015;DeBeer et al, 2016;BC MOE, 2016), with no significant trends detected at stations in the FRB.…”

Section: Previous Studies Of Climate and Streamflow Change In The Frbmentioning

confidence: 88%

“…The main outlet at Hope, which integrates the flows from all upstream locations, receives the most attention in the paper, but four subbasin outlets are also considered. Three of these were selected on the basis of their leading contributions to the observed mean annual discharge at Fraser-Hope: Upper Fraser (29 %), Thompson-Nicola (28 %), and Quesnel (9 %) (Kang et al, 2016). These subbasins are located in the eastern FRB, cover 45% of the total area, and represent nival environments.…”

Section: Study Domain and Observational Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Examining controls on peak annual streamflow and floods in the Fraser River Basin of British Columbia

Curry

Zwiers

2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The Fraser River Basin (FRB) of British Columbia is one of the largest and most important watersheds in western North America, and home to a rich diversity of biological species and economic assets that depend implicitly upon its extensive riverine habitats. The hydrology of the FRB is dominated by snow accumulation and melt processes, leading to a prominent annual peak streamflow invariably occurring in May-July. Nevertheless, while annual peak daily streamflow (APF) during the spring freshet in the FRB is historically well correlated with basin-averaged, 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE), there are numerous occurrences of anomalously large APF in below-or near-normal SWE years, some of which have resulted in damaging floods in the region. An imperfect understanding of which other climatic factors contribute to these anomalously large APFs hinders robust projections of their magnitude and frequency.We employ the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) process-based hydrological model driven by gridded observations to investigate the key controlling factors of anomalous APF events in the FRB and four of its subbasins that contribute nearly 70 % of the annual flow at Fraser-Hope. The relative influence of a set of predictors characterizing the interannual variability of rainfall, snowfall, snowpack (characterized by the annual maximum value, SWE max ), soil moisture and temperature on simulated APF at Hope (the main outlet of the FRB) and at the subbasin outlets is examined within a regression framework. The influence of large-scale climate modes of variability (the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation -ENSO) on APF magnitude is also assessed, and placed in context with these more localized controls. The results indicate that next to SWE max (univariate Spearman correlation with APF ofρ = 0.64; 0.70 (observations; VIC simulation)), the snowmelt rate (ρ = 0.43 in VIC), the ENSO and PDO indices (ρ = −0.40; −0.41) and (ρ = −0.35; −0.38), respectively, and rate of warming subsequent to the date of SWE max (ρ = 0.26; 0.38), are the most influential predictors of APF magnitude in the FRB and its subbasins. The identification of these controls on annual peak flows in the region may be of use in understanding seasonal predictions or future projected streamflow changes.

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“…Over the last century , an earlier onset of the 10 half-annual streamflow volume date was detected in one subbasin of the FRB (Stellako, 9-day advance) as well as at the major outlet to the basin at Hope (6-day advance). The latter conclusion was reinforced by Kang et al (2016), who noted a statistically significant advance, by ~10 days, of the APF at Fraser-Hope over the 1949-2006 period. Recent decadal trends in the magnitude of annual and/or seasonal mean streamflow at gauge stations in BC and western Canada have been investigated by several authors (Pike et al, 2010;Bawden et al, 2015;DeBeer et al, 2016;BC 15 MOE, 2016), with no significant trends detected at stations in the FRB. Déry et al (2012) and Hernández-Henríquez et al (2017) conducted analyses on the FRB specifically, using a network of long-term measurements at 139 streamflow gauge stations available from the online Hydrometric Database (HYDAT; Water Survey of Canada, 2016).…”

Section: Previous Studies Of Climate and Streamflow Change In The Frbmentioning

confidence: 90%

Examining controls on peak annual streamflow and floods in the Fraser River Basin of British Columbia

Curry¹,

Zwiers²

2017

Preprint

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Abstract. The Fraser River basin (FRB) of British Columbia is one of the largest and most important watersheds in WesternNorth America, and is home to a rich diversity of biological species and economic assets that depend implicitly upon its 10 extensive riverine habitats. The hydrology of the FRB is dominated by snow accumulation and melt processes, leading to a prominent annual peak streamflow invariably occurring in June-July. However, while annual peak daily streamflow (APF) during the spring freshet in the FRB is historically well correlated with basin-averaged, April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE), there are numerous occurrences of anomalously large APF in below-or near-normal SWE years, some of which have resulted in damaging floods in the region. An imperfect understanding of which other climatic factors contribute to 15 these anomalously large APFs hinders robust projections of their magnitude and frequency.We employ the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) process-based hydrological model driven by gridded observations to investigate the key controlling factors of anomalous APF events in the FRB and four of its subbasins that contribute more than 70% of the annual flow at Fraser-Hope. The relative influence of a set of predictors characterizing the interannual 20 variability of rainfall, snowfall, snowpack (characterized by the annual maximum value, SWE max ), soil moisture and temperature on simulated APF at Hope (the main outlet of the FRB) and at the subbasin outlets is examined within a regression framework. The influence of large-scale climate modes of variability (the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) on APF magnitude is also assessed, and placed in context with these more localized controls. The results indicate that next to SWE max (which strongly controls the annual maximum of soil moisture), 25 the snowmelt rate, the ENSO and PDO indices, and rate of warming subsequent to the date of SWE max are the most influential predictors of APF magnitude in the FRB and its subbasins. The identification of these controls on annual peak flows in the region may be of use in the context of seasonal prediction or future projected streamflow behavior.Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi

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Impacts of a Rapidly Declining Mountain Snowpack on Streamflow Timing in Canada’s Fraser River Basin

Cited by 50 publications

References 36 publications

River networks dampen long‐term hydrological signals of climate change

River networks dampen long‐term hydrological signals of climate change

Examining controls on peak annual streamflow and floods in the Fraser River Basin of British Columbia

Examining controls on peak annual streamflow and floods in the Fraser River Basin of British Columbia

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