Exploring potential mortality reductions in 9 European countries by improving diet and lifestyle: A modelling approach

Abstract

BackgroundCoronary heart disease (CHD) death rates have fallen across most of Europe in recent decades. However, substantial risk factor reductions have not been achieved across all Europe. Our aim was to quantify the potential impact of future policy scenarios on diet and lifestyle on CHD mortality in 9 European countries.MethodsWe updated the previously validated IMPACT CHD models in 9 European countries and extended them to 2010–11 (the baseline year) to predict reductions in CHD mortality to 2020(ages 25–74 years). We compared three scenarios: conservative, intermediate and optimistic on smoking prevalence (absolute decreases of 5%, 10% and 15%); saturated fat intake (1%, 2% and 3% absolute decreases in % energy intake, replaced by unsaturated fats); salt (relative decreases of 10%, 20% and 30%), and physical inactivity (absolute decreases of 5%, 10% and 15%). Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted.ResultsUnder the conservative, intermediate and optimistic scenarios, we estimated 10.8% (95% CI: 7.3–14.0), 20.7% (95% CI: 15.6–25.2) and 29.1% (95% CI: 22.6–35.0) fewer CHD deaths in 2020. For the optimistic scenario, 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 8.9%–11.6%, Salt intake relative reductions of 30% by approximately 5.9–8.9%; 3% reductions in saturated fat intake by 6.3–7.5%, and 15% absolute increases in physical activity by 3.7–5.3%.ConclusionsModest and feasible policy-based reductions in cardiovascular risk factors (already been achieved in some other countries) could translate into substantial reductions in future CHD deaths across Europe. However, this would require the European Union to more effectively implement powerful evidence-based prevention policies.

Meat consumption reduction in Italian regions: Health co-benefits and decreases in GHG emissions

“…Previous studies provided reductions in total mortality in the range of 0–18% [ 31 ], or 6–10% [ 19 , 40 ] associated with global livestock or red meat reduction consumption. Other studies have evaluated the impact of hypothetical change in specific nutritional factors, such as saturated fats intake, leading to reductions in cardiovascular burden in the range of 6–10% in 9 European countries [ 42 ] and of 14% by 2025 in Sweden [ 43 ].…”

“…Overall, the reductions in red meat consumption we propose are compatible with a Mediterranean-type diet, which indicates a variety of proteins (meat and poultry, fish, milk and dairy products, legumes) and does not suggest radical choices, such as the adoption of a vegetarian or vegan diet [ 27 ]. For example, diets with fewer animal-sourced foods typically include more legumes, nuts and whole grains which evidence suggests have health benefits and are likely to increase the number of avoided deaths [ 31 , 40 , 42 , 43 ].…”

Plant-based diets for children as a means of improving adult cardiometabolic health

“…Therefore risk factor reduction strategies are critical for reducing the CVD burden. Numerous modelling studies have estimated that population-wide risk factor reductions can bring substantial decreases of CVD burden 8,105,106,107 even taking into account current trends of obesity and diabetes. It has also been shown that mortality trends respond very rapidly to changes in risk factors at the population level.…”

“…7 The potential impact of implementing risk-factor reduction policies focused on diet and lifestyle in 9 European countries has been recently quantified and it was estimated that it would result in up to 29.1% fewer CVD deaths by 2020. 8 However, there is increasing evidence that cardio-metabolic risk in adulthood is partially determined by the same risk profile in childhood. 9 Therefore interventions that target risk factors in young people could potentially be key aspects of preventive strategies in the longterm.…”

Cardiovascular health status and its associations with cardiovascular disease and ischemic heart disease prevalence in Australian adults

“…Dietary pattern was not independently related to CVD reduction in the current study. Several studies have identified dietary pattern 174,183,184 as a CVD risk factors. However, some studies failed to reveal the association.…”