A Review of the Statistical and Quantitative Methods Used to Study Alcohol-Attributable Crime

Abstract

Modelling the relationship between alcohol consumption and crime generates new knowledge for crime prevention strategies. Advances in data, particularly data with spatial and temporal attributes, have led to a growing suite of applied methods for modelling. In support of alcohol and crime researchers we synthesized and critiqued existing methods of spatially and quantitatively modelling the effects of alcohol exposure on crime to aid method selection, and identify new opportunities for analysis strategies. We searched the alcohol-crime literature from 1950 to January 2014. Analyses that statistically evaluated or mapped the association between alcohol and crime were included. For modelling purposes, crime data were most often derived from generalized police reports, aggregated to large spatial units such as census tracts or postal codes, and standardized by residential population data. Sixty-eight of the 90 selected studies included geospatial data of which 48 used cross-sectional datasets. Regression was the prominent modelling choice (n = 78) though dependent on data many variations existed. There are opportunities to improve information for alcohol-attributable crime prevention by using alternative population data to standardize crime rates, sourcing crime information from non-traditional platforms (social media), increasing the number of panel studies, and conducting analysis at the local level (neighbourhood, block, or point). Due to the spatio-temporal advances in crime data, we expect a continued uptake of flexible Bayesian hierarchical modelling, a greater inclusion of spatial-temporal point pattern analysis, and shift toward prospective (forecast) modelling over small areas (e.g., blocks).

The Negative Effects of Alcohol Establishment Size and Proximity on the Frequency of Violent and Disorder Crime across Block Groups of Victoria, British Columbia

“…While many other studies combined alcohol establishments types, conduct analysis over large spatial units, or count all establishments as having an equal influence on crime [10,29], we separate establishment categories, represent the variance in establishment size through patron capacity, and consider the spacing of alcohol establishments on assault and disorder crime potential. We provide the first low-risk threshold for allowable patron capacity of on-premises alcohol establishments, and the minimum spacing of venues to reduce alcohol-attributable assault and disorder crime.…”

“…What is not well understood are the varying effects of different types of on-premises alcohol establishment types, and their patron capacities on crime [10,11,29,30]. Many studies combined alcohol license types (on and off) and use large (census tracts, postal codes) regional units to provide information on the association.…”

“…In order to reduce alcohol-associated crime, policy makers may benefit from consistent evidenced-based information where they can attribute crime to the type, patron capacity, and distance between establishments (factor increase). This is particularly true in Canada where the lack of crime statistics available at detailed spatial locations (x,y coordinates or blocks) has limited the ability to test how the type, size, and placement of alcohol establishment is associated with crime levels [29].…”

Analyzing Local Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Police Calls-for-Service Using Bayesian Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation

“…It would also be advantageous to analyze hourly patterns in context of daily, monthly, and seasonal patterns, which may be suited for a multilevel spatio-temporal modeling approach. Finally, future research may adapt the presented spatio-temporal Bayesian model for probabilistic forecasts [69,70].…”

We have to become more specific: A reply to Morrison et al.

“…We would also applaud an article giving guidelines on the conditions under which measures and statistics should be used so as to strengthen future work (e.g. the recent contribution of Fitterer and Nelson on alcohol‐related crime).…”