Exploring critical uncertainties in pathway assessments of human-assisted introductions of alien forest species in Canada

Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank; Ducey, Mark J.; Siltanen, M.; Wilson, Kirsty; Koehler, Klaus

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.07.013

Cited by 9 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…The maps represent a novel application of a modeling framework that was previously used to analyze invasion risks associated with global marine shipping [37] and truck-based freight transportation in Canada [39]; the novelty lies in how the maps summarize and depict the model outputs at the level of individual states and provinces. To construct the maps, we ran the network model from every potential origin location (i.e., each map cell) outside a target state or province.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To construct the maps, we ran the network model from every potential origin location (i.e., each map cell) outside a target state or province. In short, we compiled a series of forward-looking analyses from every eligible node in the network to a geographic region of interest (i.e., a state or province), instead of analyzing the results for individual origin-destination node pairs, as in Yemshanov et al [39]. Perhaps more importantly, because all 55 origin risk maps share a single frame of reference (i.e., were generated using the same pathway matrix), the φ ij values reported for one state or province are directly comparable to the φ ij values for any other state or province.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Fundamentally, the network model was formulated as a first-order transition matrix [45] that operates on every pairwise combination of origin and destination locations (i.e., nodes) in the network. It was computationally impractical to build a transition matrix model involving this many combinations, so – in contrast with previous applications of this modeling framework [37], [39] to smaller initial data sets – we aggregated the NRRS data at a moderately coarse spatial resolution. We divided our area of interest (the contiguous US and southern Canada) into a continuous grid of 15×15 km map cells, and then assigned all of the origin and destination locations documented in the NRRS data to the map cell in which they fell.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In building our network model, we used the same core model structure as Yemshanov et al [39], who examined the movement of commercial freight (i.e., commodities that could harbor forest pests) among Canadian municipalities and US-Canada border crossings via the region’s road network. In addition to the difference between the underlying data sets, we expanded upon this previous study by summarizing the model outputs at the state or provincial level, which is the typical geographic scale for pest management decision making in the US and Canada.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Using a Network Model to Assess Risk of Forest Pest Spread via Recreational Travel

et al. 2014

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Long-distance dispersal pathways, which frequently relate to human activities, facilitate the spread of alien species. One pathway of concern in North America is the possible spread of forest pests in firewood carried by visitors to campgrounds or recreational facilities. We present a network model depicting the movement of campers and, by extension, potentially infested firewood. We constructed the model from US National Recreation Reservation Service data documenting more than seven million visitor reservations (including visitors from Canada) at campgrounds nationwide. This bi-directional model can be used to identify likely origin and destination locations for a camper-transported pest. To support broad-scale decision making, we used the model to generate summary maps for 48 US states and seven Canadian provinces that depict the most likely origins of campers traveling from outside the target state or province. The maps generally showed one of two basic spatial patterns of out-of-state (or out-of-province) origin risk. In the eastern United States, the riskiest out-of-state origin locations were usually found in a localized region restricted to portions of adjacent states. In the western United States, the riskiest out-of-state origin locations were typically associated with major urban areas located far from the state of interest. A few states and the Canadian provinces showed characteristics of both patterns. These model outputs can guide deployment of resources for surveillance, firewood inspections, or other activities. Significantly, the contrasting map patterns indicate that no single response strategy is appropriate for all states and provinces. If most out-of-state campers are traveling from distant areas, it may be effective to deploy resources at key points along major roads (e.g., interstate highways), since these locations could effectively represent bottlenecks of camper movement. If most campers are from nearby areas, they may have many feasible travel routes, so a more widely distributed deployment may be necessary.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Using a Network Model to Assess Risk of Forest Pest Spread via Recreational Travel

et al. 2014

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“…A potentially confounding factor in such studies is the variation among rural and urbanized regions (as well as among industrialized and developing countries) in resources to track and fight plant epidemics. Even if new plant pathogens tend to be recorded first in urbanized regions (Yemshanov et al 2013), the bulk of the cultivated area is located in rural areas, so that there might be a longer lag between first report and epidemic, thus providing some more time for rural economies to prepare for new plant health risks.…”

Section: Human (And Plant) Mobilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Network epidemiology and plant trade networks

Pautasso¹,

Jeger

2014

AoB PLANTS

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Epidemic models in complex networks are helping us better understand infectious disease outbreaks. This review focuses on the application of new developments in network epidemiology to the study and management of plant diseases. The main aspects covered are: 1) surveys of social networks, 2) models and data about human mobility, 3) epidemic models in directed and hierarchical networks, 4) studies of dynamic networks, and 5) spatial epidemic simulations integrating network data. Because of the increasing amounts of traded plant commodities and the associated rise in introduced plant pests and pathogens, network theory has a great potential in plant science.

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Economics of Invasive Species

Warziniack

Haight

Yemshanov

et al. 2021

Invasive Species in Forests and Rangelands of the United States

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While the subset of introduced species that become invasive is small, the damages caused by that subset and the costs of controlling them can be substantial. This chapter takes an in-depth look at the economic damages non-native species cause, methods economists often use to measure those damages, and tools used to assess invasive species policies. Ecological damages are covered in other chapters of this book. To put the problem in perspective, Federal agencies reported spending more than half a billion dollars per year in 1999 and 2000 for activities related to invasive species ($513.9 million in 1999 and $631.5 million in 2000 (U.S. GAO 2000)). Approximately half of these expenses were spent on prevention. Several states also spend considerable resources on managing non-native species; for example, Florida spent $127.6 million on invasive species activities in 2000 (U.S. GAO 2000), and the Great Lakes states spend about $20 million each year to control sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) (Kinnunen 2015). Costs to government may not be the same as actual damages, which generally fall disproportionately on a few economic sectors and households. For example, the impact of the 2002 outbreak of West Nile virus exceeded $4 million in damages to the equine industries in Colorado and Nebraska alone (USDA APHIS 2003) and more than $20 million in public health damages in Louisiana (Zohrabian et al. 2004). Zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) cause $300–$500 million annually in damages to power plants, water systems, and industrial water intakes in the Great Lakes region (Great Lakes Commission 2012) and are expected to cause $64 million annually in damages should they or quagga mussels (Dreissena bugensis) spread to the Columbia River basin (Warziniack et al. 2011).

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Exploring critical uncertainties in pathway assessments of human-assisted introductions of alien forest species in Canada

Cited by 9 publications

References 55 publications

Using a Network Model to Assess Risk of Forest Pest Spread via Recreational Travel

Using a Network Model to Assess Risk of Forest Pest Spread via Recreational Travel

Network epidemiology and plant trade networks

Economics of Invasive Species

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