Climate Change Expands the Spatial Extent and Duration of Preferred Thermal Habitat for Lake Superior Fishes

Abstract

Climate change is expected to alter species distributions and habitat suitability across the globe. Understanding these shifting distributions is critical for adaptive resource management. The role of temperature in fish habitat and energetics is well established and can be used to evaluate climate change effects on habitat distributions and food web interactions. Lake Superior water temperatures are rising rapidly in response to climate change and this is likely influencing species distributions and interactions. We use a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model that captures temperature changes in Lake Superior over the last 3 decades to investigate shifts in habitat size and duration of preferred temperatures for four different fishes. We evaluated habitat changes in two native lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) ecotypes, siscowet and lean lake trout, Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), and walleye (Sander vitreus). Between 1979 and 2006, days with available preferred thermal habitat increased at a mean rate of 6, 7, and 5 days per decade for lean lake trout, Chinook salmon, and walleye, respectively. Siscowet lake trout lost 3 days per decade. Consequently, preferred habitat spatial extents increased at a rate of 579, 495 and 419 km2 per year for the lean lake trout, Chinook salmon, and walleye while siscowet lost 161 km2 per year during the modeled period. Habitat increases could lead to increased growth and production for three of the four fishes. Consequently, greater habitat overlap may intensify interguild competition and food web interactions. Loss of cold-water habitat for siscowet, having the coldest thermal preference, could forecast potential changes from continued warming. Additionally, continued warming may render more suitable conditions for some invasive species.

Population ecology of the sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) as an invasive species in the Laurentian Great Lakes and an imperiled species in Europe

“…Models of juvenile sea lamprey growth in Lake Superior indicate that sea lampreys can reach spawning size within 12 months even in the coldest temperature regimes (Moody et al 2011). The effect of climate change is expected to increase the range of thermal habitat, and subsequently, the growth rate and attained size of sea lampreys (Cline et al 2013). Juvenile sea lamprey grew 227-268 g in weight in one summer, from outmigration in autumn and spring 1998-2000 (initial weight = 5.33-6.01 g) to recapture in spring 1 year later, in the Black Mallard Creek, Michigan, a tributary to Lake Huron (Swink and Johnson 2014).…”

“…Forecasts of increased fecundity and sea lamprey induced mortality are expected to negatively impact native fish species, particularly siscowet lake trout in Lake Superior (Cline et al 2013). Global climate change is expected to increase negative effects of sea lamprey-induced mortality on host fish populations in Lake Superior, one of the most rapidly warming lakes on Earth (Kitchell et al 2014).…”

“…As Lake Superior continues to warm, sea lamprey growth is predicted to increase, thereby producing larger sea lampreys, greater blood consumption by sea lampreys, and increased lethality of sea lamprey attacks on hosts (Cline et al 2014;Kitchell et al 2014). Further, climate change may cause longer feeding seasons, increased growth, and larger sea lampreys (Cline et al 2013), with increased fecundity, particularly in Lake Superior (Moody et al 2011), which may lead to increased sea lamprey abundance. Climate change is also predicted to increase the magnitude of flood events that could lead to reduced effectiveness of low-head barriers used to block upstream spawning migrations of sea lampreys in the Great Lakes (Rahel and Olden 2008).…”

Climate impacts on landlocked sea lamprey: Implications for host‐parasite interactions and invasive species management

“…Biases in over-lake atmospheric conditions cause the model to modestly overestimate temperatures in cold years while no known bias exists in warm years (Bennington et al 2010). Therefore tests of warming effects are conservative estimates of true changes in conditions (Cline et al 2013). At the time of model run, the latest year with lake ice data needed for To assess the impacts of regional differences in warming rates on sea lamprey growth and feeding, we developed estimates of feeding and growth rates based on the Wisconsin bioenergetics model (Hanson et al 1997).…”

“…As a parasite, sea lamprey occupy the thermal habitat of their host. Since 1980, climate change has significantly increased the amount of preferred thermal habitat available to these host fishes and created longer growing seasons (Cline et al 2013). We expect sea lamprey feeding and growth to respond to these changes (Kitchell et al, in press).…”