Causes and Consequences of Expectation Trajectories

Abstract

Although expectations are key theoretical antecedents of emotion and behavior, expectations are typically examined as static properties without deep consideration of their temporal dynamics. We surveyed residents of California over five time points, during the month preceding a public ballot initiative on cannabis legalization (California Proposition 19) and after the election, to examine both the causes and the consequences of residents' expectation trajectories regarding the vote's outcome. Our results point to the importance of changes in individuals' expectations over time. Specifically, well-informed voters were likely to lower their expectations regarding the measure's passage as the vote neared, in line with polling results, but being informed about the initiative had less impact on expectation trajectories among voters who favored the measure than among those who opposed it. Furthermore, supporters who maintained their optimism about the initiative's outcome over time were more likely to vote and were more disappointed following the measure's failure, compared with supporters who became more pessimistic. The findings suggest that temporal changes in people's optimism and expectations play a unique role in social behavior.

The surprising upsides of worry

“…Although bracing is distinct from the emotional and cognitive patterns that are characteristic of worry, they are both driven in part by anxiety over the possibility that a feared outcome will come to pass—and both bracing and worrying have an emotional payoff following the moment of truth. Research on students' reactions to receiving a poor grade on a midterm exam (Sweeny & Shepperd, ), voters' reactions to the failure of a favored ballot measure (Krizan & Sweeny, ), and participants' reactions to learning that they tested positive for a (fictitious) disease (Shepperd & McNulty, ) consistently finds that people feel better about their outcome if they had feared the worst rather than assuming the best.…”

On the Experience of Awaiting Uncertain News

“…First, several decades of research support the benefits of lowering one's expectations at the moment of truth to brace for the worst and minimize the blow of bad news (e.g., Sweeny & Shepperd, 2010)-but when it comes to effectively managing one's expectations, timing is everything. People who embrace pessimism too early curse themselves with unnecessarily prolonged worry (Sweeny et al, 2016), and people who fail to shift toward pessimism as news approaches leave themselves vulnerable to disappointment (Krizan & Sweeny, 2013). In short, people should assume the best as long as they can before bracing for the worst at the end of the wait.…”

(Too) optimistic about optimism: The belief that optimism improves performance.

“…In social situations, people who overestimate their popularity run the risk of social ostracism (Anderson, Srivastava, Beer, Spataro, & Chatman, 2006). There are also potential intrapsychic costs to optimism: the more optimistic people are, the more likely they are to be disappointed when reality falls short of their expectations (Krizan, Miller, & Johar, 2010;Krizan & Sweeny, 2013;McGraw, Mellers, & Ritov, 2004;Thomaes et al, 2010), and giving up on an unreachable goal is good for well-being . …”