20th century droughts in southern Africa: spatial and temporal variability, teleconnections with oceanic and atmospheric conditions

Richard, Yves; Fauchereau, Nicolas; Poccard, Isabelle; Rouault, M.; Trzaska, S.

doi:10.1002/joc.656

Cited by 154 publications

(124 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…The observed ENSO/IODZM-Zim SPI relationship above is consistent with the work of Richard et al (2001). Their modelling results indicate that ENSO events, which occurred in the relatively cold background (pure El Niño) of the pre-1970 period of the IO, had little effect on southern African climate conditions and atmospheric circulation.…”

Section: Decadal Variation Of Pure El Niño Positive Iodzmi and Co-ocsupporting

confidence: 84%

The impact of the positive Indian Ocean dipole on Zimbabwe droughts

Manatsa

Chingombe

Matarira

2008

Intl Journal of Climatology

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A comparative study of the impact of the anomalous positive Indian Ocean SST gradient, referred to as the Indian Ocean Dipole/Zonal Mode (IODZM), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Zimbabwe seasonal rainfall variability for the period 1940-1999, is documented. Composite techniques together with simple and partial correlation analyses are employed to segregate the unique association related to IODZM/ENSO with respect to the Zimbabwe seasonal rainfall.The analysis reveals that the IODZM impact on the country's summer rainfall is overwhelming as compared to that of ENSO when the two are in competition. The IODZM influence remains high (significant above 99% confidence level), even after the influence of ENSO has been removed, while that of ENSO collapses to insignificance (even at 90% confidence level) when the IODZM contribution is eliminated. The relationship between ENSO and Zimbabwe seasonal rainfall seems to be sustained through El Niño occurring in the presence of positive IODZM events. However, when the co-occurring positive IODZM and El Niño events are removed from the analysis, it is apparently clear that ENSO has little to do with the country's rainfall variability. On the other hand, positive IODZM is mostly associated with the rainfall deficits, whether or not it co-occurs with El Niño. However, the co-occurrence of the two events does not necessarily suggest that El Niño influences droughts through the positive IODZM events. The El Niño event components during co-occurrence seem to be unrelated (at least linearly) to the droughts, while the positive IODZM events display a relatively strong relationship that is significant above the 95% confidence level. It thus becomes important to extend the study of this nature to cover the whole of southern Africa, so that the extent of the impact of the phenomena can be realized over the whole region.

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Section: Decadal Variation Of Pure El Niño Positive Iodzmi and Co-ocsupporting

confidence: 84%

The impact of the positive Indian Ocean dipole on Zimbabwe droughts

Manatsa

Chingombe

Matarira

2008

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Beyond increases in temperature, climate change in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to cause changes in rainfall intensity (Thomas et al 2007;Songok et al 2011a), increases in the incidence of extreme events such as droughts and floods (Richard et al 2001;Fauchereau et al 2003;New et al 2006;Niang et al 2014;Tschakert et al 2010), increases in desertification (Reich et al 2001), and alterations in certain disease vectors causing changes in the spatial and temporal transmission of infectious diseases (Hay et al 2002;Chen et al 2006). Expected impacts include shortened or disrupted growing seasons, reductions in the area suitable for agriculture, and declines in agricultural yields in many regions of subSaharan Africa (Niang et al 2014;Müller et al 2011;Sarr 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change, food security, and livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa

2015

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Sub-Saharan Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Multiple biophysical, political, and socioeconomic stresses interact to increase the region's susceptibility and constrain its adaptive capacity. Climate change is commonly recognized as a major issue likely to have negative consequences on food security and livelihoods in the region. This paper reviews three bodies of scholarship that have evolved somewhat separately, yet are inherently interconnected: climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, food security, and sustainable livelihoods. The paper develops a conceptualization of the relationships among the three themes and shows how food security's vulnerabilities are related to multiple stresses and adaptive capacities, reflecting access to assets. Food security represents one of several livelihood outcomes. The framework shows how several research paradigms relate to the issue of food security and climate change and provides a guide for empirical investigations. Recognizing these interconnections can help in the development of more effective policies and programs. The framework is applied here to synthesize findings from an array of studies in subSaharan Africa dealing with vulnerability to climate change, food security, and livelihoods.

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“…• Africa (Tyson, 1980;Nicholson and Palao, 1993;Tyson et al, 1997;Kruger, 1999;Richard et al, 2001);…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global analysis of runs of annual precipitation and runoff equal to or below the median: run length

Peel

Pegram

McMahon

2004

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The investigation of fluctuations of wet and dry years has a long history in the climatology and hydrology literature. In this, the first of two papers investigating runs of consecutive dry years, the lengths (persistence) of dry runs are investigated. In the second paper the magnitude/intensity and severity (length × magnitude) of dry runs will be investigated. Consecutive dry years are associated with drought, which is a significant physical and economic phenomenon that imposes great stress on ecosystems and societies. Run lengths of consecutive years equal to or below the median were analysed for 3863 precipitation and 1236 runoff stations from around the world. Run lengths were found to be similar across all continents and Köppen climate zones, expect for tropical and arid North Africa (Sahel), which showed a distinct bias toward longer run lengths than any other region of the world. Generally, the run length observed in annual runoff was found to be similar to that observed in annual precipitation for the same location. Both annual precipitation and runoff data were found to be well described by the lag-one autoregressive (AR(1)) model or by white noise. The influence of the El Niño-southern oscillation on run lengths was not observed to be significant. The presence of decadal and multi-decadal oscillations was weakly observed in the results of the precipitation runs analysis. The faintness of the decadal and multi-decadal oscillation signal may be due to the sample sizes not being long enough and/or the runs analysis not being sensitive enough to detect their presence.

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20th century droughts in southern Africa: spatial and temporal variability, teleconnections with oceanic and atmospheric conditions

Cited by 154 publications

References 42 publications

The impact of the positive Indian Ocean dipole on Zimbabwe droughts

The impact of the positive Indian Ocean dipole on Zimbabwe droughts

Climate change, food security, and livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa

Global analysis of runs of annual precipitation and runoff equal to or below the median: run length

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