In the Ocean, the seasonal cycle is the mode that couples climate forcing to ecosystem response in production, diversity and carbon export. A better characterisation of the ecosystem's seasonal cycle therefore addresses an important gap in our ability to estimate the sensitivity of the biological pump to climate change. In this study, the regional characteristics of the seasonal cycle of phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean are examined in terms of the timing of the bloom initiation, its amplitude, regional scale variability and the importance of the climatological seasonal cycle in explaining the overall variance. The seasonal cycle was consequently defined into four broad zonal regions; the subtropical zone (STZ), the transition zone (TZ), the Antarctic circumpolar zone (ACZ) and the marginal ice zone (MIZ). Defining the Southern Ocean according to the characteristics of its seasonal cycle provides a more dynamic understanding of ocean productivity based on underlying physical drivers rather than climatological biomass. The response of the biology to the underlying physics of the different seasonal zones resulted in an additional classification of four regions based on the extent of inter-annual seasonal phase locking and the magnitude of the integrated seasonal biomass. This regionalisation contributes towards an improved understanding of the regional differences in the sensitivity of the Southern Oceans ecosystem to climate forcing, potentially allowing more robust predictions of the effects of long term climate trends

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Intrusions of warm equatorial water in the South East Atlantic Ocean off Angola and Namibia may be linked with above average rainfall along the coast of those countries but sometimes also with inland areas of southern Africa e.g. Zambia. During the 1984, 1986, 1995 and 2001 warm events, above average rainfall occurred near the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and extended inland from the coast to an extent that appeared to depend on the intensity of the regional moisture convergence and atmospheric circulation anomalies. Rainfall over western Angola/Namibia is greatest for those events for which the local circulation anomalies act to strengthen the climatological westwards flux of Indian Ocean sourced moisture across low latitude southern Africa and which flow anticyclonically over the warmest SST off the coast thereby weakening the mean southeasterly moisture flux away from Africa over the SE Atlantic. The significance of the warm events occurring during the February to April period is that this is the time when SST reaches its maximum in the annual cycle (up to 28°C off northern Angola) and this favours more intense local evaporation and convection and a greater impact on late austral summer rainfall. Better understanding of these warm events is necessary for assessing impacts on regional rainfall, agriculture and fisheries and for improving seasonal forecasting in this region.

Tropical-extratropical cloud band systems over southern Africa, known as tropical temperate troughs (TTTs), are known to contribute substantially to South African summer rainfall. This study performs a comprehensive assessment of the seasonal cycle and rainfall contribution of TTTs by using a novel object-based strategy that explicitly tracks these systems for their full life cycle. The methodology incorporates a simple assignment of station rainfall data to each event, thereby creating a database containing detailed rainfall characteristics for each TTT. This is used to explore the importance of TTTs for rain days and climatological rainfall totals in October-March. Average contributions range from 30 to 60 % with substantial spatial heterogeneity observed. TTT rainfall contributions over the Highveld and eastern escarpment are lower than expected. A short analysis of TTT rainfall variability indicates TTTs provide substantial, but not dominant, intraseasonal and interannual variability in station rainfall totals. TTTs are however responsible for a high proportion of heavy rainfall days. Of 52 extreme rainfall events in the 1979-1999 period, 30 are associated with these tropical-extratropical interactions. Cut-off lows were included in the evolution of 6 of these TTTs. The study concludes with an analysis of the question: does the Madden-Julian Oscillation influence the intensity of TTT rainfall over South Africa? Results suggest a weak but significant suppression (enhancement) of intensity during phase 1(6).