2018 Argentina: Haunted by Instability Once Again

Abstract

2018 was a rocky year for Argentina. Economic instability put it on the brink of crisis again and eroded the government's credibility. This article provides an analysis of the main social, political and economic events affecting Argentina's domestic politics and foreign policy. It accounts for selected issues, with an emphasis on changes in public policies and implications for the upcoming years. The argumentative thread focuses on the consequences of Argentina's being haunted by the spectre of another debacle. Within changes in public policies, the focus is on the end of a gradual approach to structural changes and initiatives related to population and human mobility across borders-a policy area that has required increasing attention and resources of late.

Political economies and decision-making processes in Latin America

“…In fact, Macri applied at first (2015/17) liberal political economies, but in 2018/19 he turned to conservatism, with some heterodox measures like capitals' controls. (Basualdo, 2020;Buchieri & Mancha Navarro 2019, Llanos, Maya 2019, Margheritis 2019, Simonoff 2019, Sturzenegger 2019.…”

Argentina 2021: Elecciones en Contexto De Crisis

“…A ello se sumaban las restricciones asociadas al aumento de los niveles del endeudamiento externo de Argentina, lo que conllevaba en lo inmediato la necesidad de destinar recursos escasos para el pago de los vencimientos de esa deuda. En 2018, el gobierno de Macri había firmado un acuerdo récord con el FMI, el préstamo más grande otorgado por el organismo en su historia (Margheritis 2019), cuyo primer vencimiento estaba estipulado para 2021. Solamente en concepto de pago del capital, los vencimientos eran de casi US$ 4 mil millones en 2021, cerca de US$ 18 mil millones en 2022, US$ 19 mil millones en 2023 y aproximadamente US$ 5 mil millones en 2024 (según datos del Ministerio de Economía de la Nación a diciembre de 2021).…”

It's (Almost) Always the Economy: Economic Performance and Political Realignments in Argentina in 2019

“…By the end of 2017, the overall consensus was that the government would be the favorite in the 2019 contest. Although the economy did not perform well in 2018 (Margheritis 2019), the government still looked competitive at the beginning of 2019. Therefore, not only did a non-Peronist government seem to be headed to finish its term, but it also had a good chance to get reelected.…”

“…Throughout 2018 it became evident that the government could not control inflation or currency depreciation. The IMF approved additional disbursements ending in the largest-ever loan from the IMF to a single country (Margheritis 2018). 2018 ended with a government unable to tame inflation, a falling economy crippled by a severe fiscal adjustment, and higher levels of public debt, unemployment and poverty -a cycle unfortunately well known in Argentina (Beckerman 1995).…”