100-Year flood–it's all about chance

Holmes, Robert R.; Dinicola, Karen

doi:10.3133/gip106

Cited by 50 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 0 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In some regions, climate change is expected to increase the frequency, intensity, spatial extent and duration of large floods (Aldous et al, 2011;Dankers et al, 2014). Extreme floods are defined as flows with a 100-year return interval or those with a 1% exceedance probability (Holmes & Dinicola, 2010). To the best of our knowledge, there are no quantitative models of how these extreme flow events will be affected by global warming but Dankers et al (2014) predict that for up to 30% of global land cover (e.g.…”

Section: Climate Change Impacts On Flood Regimesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Resetting the river template: the potential for climate‐related extreme floods to transform river geomorphology and ecology

2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

1. Climate change is expected to alter the occurrence of extreme climatic events, including major floods. Future shifts in the frequency and intensity of extreme floods will vary by region and could modify the geomorphological character of riverine habitat. 2. The geomorphological structure of rivers determines the quality and quantity of habitat available for resident biota, and thus, changes to morphology from more extreme floods are likely to affect river ecology over and above the direct effects of the flood events themselves. 3. Extreme floods can exacerbate the effect of multiple anthropogenic stressors, with potentially dramatic effects on freshwater ecosystems. For instance, high flows mobilise nutrients, sediment and toxic chemicals, and aid dispersal of invasive species, whereas land-use change and channelisation impair flood refugia and constrain recolonisation pathways. 4. Extreme floods may also benefit riverine and riparian biota, overwhelming current anthropogenic constraints and infrastructure to increase habitat complexity and floodplain area. 5. Management to protect human life and infrastructure from severe river flooding can alter channel geomorphology, habitat quality and ecology. However, flood prevention engineering that incorporates the natural form of rivers could potentially mitigate anthropogenic flood damage, in turn restoring habitat and historical ecosystem functioning. 6. We examine potential changes in river channel and floodplain geomorphological characteristics resulting from altered extreme flooding regimes and consider likely implications for the management of the world's freshwater biota.Peer reviewe

show abstract

Section: Climate Change Impacts On Flood Regimesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Resetting the river template: the potential for climate‐related extreme floods to transform river geomorphology and ecology

2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…A high-risk area is exposed to a chance of at least 1% of a catastrophic flood in any given year. The 1% benchmark is commonly used in brochures to communicate flood risks (Holmes & Dinicola, 2010;FEMA, 2016). Base rates of catastrophic flood events higher than 4% are uncommon and may have made the task implausible, so we did not use numbers greater than 4% (Fischhoff & Davis, 2014).…”

Section: Judgment Taskmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding Cumulative Risk Perception from Judgments and Choices: An Application to Flood Risks

et al. 2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Catastrophic events, such as floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, and tsunamis, are rare, yet the cumulative risk of each event occurring at least once over an extended time period can be substantial. In this work, we assess the perception of cumulative flood risks, how those perceptions affect the choice of insurance, and whether perceptions and choices are influenced by cumulative risk information. We find that participants' cumulative risk judgments are well represented by a bimodal distribution, with a group that severely underestimates the risk and a group that moderately overestimates it. Individuals who underestimate cumulative risks make more risk‐seeking choices compared to those who overestimate cumulative risks. Providing explicit cumulative risk information for relevant time periods, as opposed to annual probabilities, is an inexpensive and effective way to improve both the perception of cumulative risk and the choices people make to protect against that risk.

show abstract

“…Discharge measurements at the Loop 11 gage location have been made sporadically beginning in 1900 and routinely since 1938. A record stage (since at least 1938) of 24.40 feet (ft) with a peak discharge of 10,100 cubic feet per second (ft 3 Changes in channel conveyance, a measure of the carrying capacity of a channel (Chow, 1959), can affect the reliability of streamflow gaging records used to determine annual exceedance probabilities for floods such as the 1-percent annual exceedance probability flood, commonly referred to as the 100-year flood (Holmes and Dinicola, 2010). The reliability of annual peak-streamflow data for the Loop 11 gage requires an understanding of the factors affecting stream stage on the Wichita River.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of channel changes, model of historical floods, and effects of backwater on flood stage, and flood mitigation alternatives for the Wichita River at Wichita Falls, Texas

100-Year flood–it's all about chance

Cited by 50 publications

References 0 publications

Resetting the river template: the potential for climate‐related extreme floods to transform river geomorphology and ecology

Resetting the river template: the potential for climate‐related extreme floods to transform river geomorphology and ecology

Understanding Cumulative Risk Perception from Judgments and Choices: An Application to Flood Risks

Assessment of channel changes, model of historical floods, and effects of backwater on flood stage, and flood mitigation alternatives for the Wichita River at Wichita Falls, Texas

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About