Progression of confirmed COVID-19 cases after the implementation of control measures

Abstract

Objective To analyse the measures adopted by countries that have shown control over the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and how each curve of accumulated cases behaved after the implementation of those measures. Methods The methodology adopted for this study comprises three phases: systemizing control measures adopted by different countries, identifying structural breaks in the growth of the number of cases for those countries, and analyzing Brazilian data in particular. Results We noted that China (excluding Hubei Province), Hubei Province, and South Korea have been effective in their deceleration of the growth rates of COVID-19 cases. The effectiveness of the measures taken by these countries could be seen after 1 to 2 weeks of their application. In Italy and Spain, control measures at the national level were taken at a late stage of the epidemic, which could have contributed to the high propagation of COVID-19. In Brazil, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo adopted measures that could be effective in slowing the propagation of the virus. However, we only expect to see their effects on the growth of the curve in the coming days. Conclusion Our results may help decisionmakers in countries in relatively early stages of the epidemic, especially Brazil, understand the importance of control measures in decelerating the growth curve of confirmed cases.

Brazilian Older People Hospitalized by COVID-19: Characteristics and Prognostic Factors in a Retrospective Cohort Study

“…However, following the example of other countries, some states have adopted control measures to slow this growth. The country has still not adopted a nationwide control measure, which may delay the containment of the disease in Brazil (de Paula Antunes et al, 2020).…”

Impact of social isolation due to COVID-19 on the seasonality of pediatric respiratory diseases

“…In Italy and Spain, control measures were taken at the national level in a final stage of the epidemic, which may have contributed to the high spread of COVID-19 in these countries. In Brazil, the measures adopted prevented the collapse of the health system and appear to have an influence on the growth curve of new infections by COVID-19 [ 7 , 8 ].…”

“…In the year 2020, due to the pandemic caused by COVID-19, social isolation, with the closing of trade and companies and the suspension of classes, was highly recommended in an attempt to reduce the spread of the virus. The impact caused by social isolation was one of the factors that may have contributed to the change in the seasonal characteristic of respiratory diseases in pediatrics in the year in question [ 7 ].…”

Physiological and socioeconomic characteristics predict COVID-19 mortality and resource utilization in Brazil

“…Starting in March 2020, control measures were implemented in the country in a decentralized manner, with each state being responsible for the adoption and enforcement of its own set of social distancing measures. The states of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro were the first to shut down non-essential services, including shopping and fitness centers, and to cancel all public events [25]. At the time of this report, just over six months after confirmation of the first case, the total number of cases in Brazil surpassed the 4 million mark, with over 125,500 deaths [1], albeit with an estimated reporting rate of only 9.2% [26].…”