Um modelo para a dengue com influência sazonal

Vilches, Thomas N.; Ferreira, Cláudia Pio

doi:10.5540/tema.2013.014.03.0279

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 11 publications

(15 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…The World Health Organization (WHO) points out that more than 2.5 billion people, that is, almost 40% of the world's population, live in areas at high risk for the occurrence of the disease (MULIK, 2021). Vilches (2013) and Ribeiro (2006) discuss the seasonal effect of dengue, with peaks occurring in some months of the year and remission of cases in others, demonstrating a certain periodicity in the occurrence of the disease according to the variation in temperature and temperature. rainfall, favoring or preventing conditions for the development of the mosquito.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dengue in Children Under 15 Years: Clinical and Epidemiological Aspects, State of Paraná, in the Period of 2019 and 2020

ALMEIDA STACECHEN,

SOUZA

2023

JHSR

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Dengue is an infectious viral disease, endemic in several regions of Brazil. Since the introduction of the virus in the country, young adults have been the most affected by the disease. However, in recent decades there has been an increase in cases in children. In view of this new scenario, a descriptive, retrospective observational study was carried out, with data from SINAN, which compared the incidence rate of dengue in children under 15 years of age, using the chi-square test, between age groups (under 1, 1 to 4, 5 to 9 and 10 to 14 years), also between genders and between reporting municipalities in Paraná in 2019 and 2020. The monthly distribution and association of the variables fever, leukopenia, presence of petechiae, test of the positive tie and serotype with the age range. Among the findings, May 2019 and March 2020 were the months with the highest rates of each year, with children under 1 year of age being the most affected. Fever was also more present in this group. There was no association of the disease with gender. The most prevalent serotype was DENV-2. Juranda, Inajá and Sertanópolis (14553, 13205 and 13072 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively) were the cities with the highest incidence. Thus, it is expected to contribute to the clinical and epidemiological data of dengue in Paraná, since the disease in this particularly vulnerable population has increased considerably in recent years.

show abstract

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dengue in Children Under 15 Years: Clinical and Epidemiological Aspects, State of Paraná, in the Period of 2019 and 2020

ALMEIDA STACECHEN,

SOUZA

2023

JHSR

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Dcmax or Dsmax are features describing the length of period with/without records of dengue cases, which is directly related to the sustainability of transmission [ 8 , 38 ]. The seasonal-to-trend ratio (ST) is also a standard metric in signal processing analysis for measuring the importance of the seasonal transmission compared to the baseline transmission [ 39 ]. In summary, all of these are the features proposed to describe important dengue time series signatures that can be related to the literature and were used to establish dengue transmission profiles.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How heterogeneous is the dengue transmission profile in Brazil? A study in six Brazilian states

2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Dengue is a vector-borne disease present in most tropical countries, infecting an average of 50 to 100 million people per year. Socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental factors directly influence the transmission cycle of the dengue virus (DENV). In Brazil, these factors vary between regions producing different profiles of dengue transmission and challenging the epidemiological surveillance of the disease. In this article, we aimed at classifying the profiles of dengue transmission in 1,823 Brazilian municipalities, covering different climates, from 2010 to 2019. Time series data of dengue cases were obtained from six states: Ceará and Maranhão in the semiarid Northeast, Minas Gerais in the countryside, Espírito Santo and Rio de Janeiro in the tropical Atlantic coast, and Paraná in the subtropical region. To describe the time series, we proposed a set of epi-features of the magnitude and duration of the dengue epidemic cycles, totaling 13 indicators. Using these epi-features as inputs, a multivariate cluster algorithm was employed to classify the municipalities according to their dengue transmission profile. Municipalities were classified into four distinct dengue transmission profiles: persistent transmission (7.8%), epidemic (21.3%), episodic/epidemic (43.2%), and episodic transmission (27.6%). Different profiles were associated with the municipality’s population size and climate. Municipalities with higher incidence and larger populations tended to be classified as persistent transmission, suggesting the existence of critical community size. This association, however, varies depending on the state, indicating the importance of other factors. The proposed classification is useful for developing more specific and precise surveillance protocols for regions with different dengue transmission profiles, as well as more precise public policies for dengue prevention.

show abstract

“…Os parâmetros relacionados ao vetor são φ queé uma taxa de reposição, δ 1 e δ 2 que são as taxas de infeção dos mosquitos suscetíveis, µ m queé a mortalidade do vetor e por fim α queé o parâmetro relacionadoàs tentativas de controle da população de mosquitos, como por exemplo a fiscalização de residências e comércios. Assim, para o modelo, serão apresentados os pontos de equilíbrio e as análises de estabilidade destes com base nos polinômios característicos da Matriz Jacobiana do sistema de equações diferencias proposto, bem como no número reprodutivo basal do modelo [4]. Ao fim também serão mostradas as séries temporais da dinâmica de transmissão para diferentes casos epidêmicos, levando em conta diferentes conjuntos de parâmetros [3], e os diagramas de bifurcação relativos a coexistência e exclusão dos diferentes sorotipos.…”

unclassified

Análises algébricas e numéricas para um modelo de transmissão de dois sorotipos de dengue

Vilches

Ferreira

2015

Proceeding Series of the Brazilian Society of Computational and Applied Mathematics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

RESUMOA dengueé uma doença transmitida através de um vetor, sendo o mosquito Aedes aegypti o principal deles. No Brasil já existem os quatro sorotipos, e somos responsáveis por 60% dos casos de Dengue no mundo, e 80% na América do Sul. Sabe-se que existem quatro sorotipos de dengue circulantes e que a infecção por qualquer tipo de sorotipo produz imunidade permanente a este, e apenas temporária aos outros. Portanto, em média seis meses após a primeira infecção o indivíduo pode adquirir um novo sorotipo. A detecção de co-circulaçãoé normalmente feita através do isolamento do vírus, o queé muito difícil. Assim não há informação real sobre a reação cruzada (imunidade cruzada ou super-infecção), tornando um dos objetivo deste trabalho, estudar a influência da infecção primária na infecção secundária ([1]). Para isso propoe-se um modelo teórico que descreve a dinâmica da doença onde se considera a população humana, a população de vetor e dois sorotipos circulantes, e estuda-se através de uma abordagem analítica e numérica quais as condições necessárias para permanência ou desaparecimento de um determinado sorotipo e a coexistência de dois sorotipos. Para tanto foi proposto a divisão da população humana e do vetor nas seguintes classes: sejam S os indivíduos suscetíveis, I 1 os indivíduos infectados pelo primeiro sorotipo do vetor, I 2 os infectados pelo segundo sorotipo do vetor, R 1 os recuperados do primeiro tipo da doença, R 2 os recuperados do segundo tipo da doença, I 12 os indivíduos que se recuperaram do primeiro sorotipo de vírus e se infectaram com o segundo, I 21 os indivíduos que se recuperaram do segundo sorotipo de vírus e se infectaram com o primeiro, e R são os indivíduos que se recuperaram dos dois sorotipos do vírus. Na população de vetor V S , V I1 e V I2 são os vetores suscetíveis, infectados pelo primeiro sorotipo e infectados pelo segundo sorotipo, respectivamente. O modelo compartimental propostoé apresentado na Figura 1. * FAPESP processo n o

show abstract

Um modelo para a dengue com influência sazonal

Cited by 3 publications

References 11 publications

Dengue in Children Under 15 Years: Clinical and Epidemiological Aspects, State of Paraná, in the Period of 2019 and 2020

Dengue in Children Under 15 Years: Clinical and Epidemiological Aspects, State of Paraná, in the Period of 2019 and 2020

How heterogeneous is the dengue transmission profile in Brazil? A study in six Brazilian states

Análises algébricas e numéricas para um modelo de transmissão de dois sorotipos de dengue

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About