A Mathematical Model for Accessing Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Infants

Abstract

A mathematical model was developed to describe the dynamics of the primary infection of dengue virus in infant who were born of a mother immune to some serotype of the dengue virus. The model is given by a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations with the time-dependent variables for the number of DENV antibodies of the infant transferred from their immune, uninfected and infected monocytes and dengue virus. The mathematical analysis was carried out where the conditions for the existence of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium were established. The numerical simulations were performed considering different scenarios for R0 (Basic Reproductive Number), illustrating the global convergence of the numerical results for the equilibrium points. The results are in agreement with our derived global stability analysis. It can be concluded that the DHF in the infants could occur in the peaks observed for the infected monocytes and dengue virus.

Pemodelan Matematika dan Analisis Penyebaran Demam Berdarah

“…Beberapa penelitian sebelumnya telah menyelidiki model matematika untuk memahami penyebaran demam berdarah [9], [10], [11] dengan mengeksplorasi dampak heterogenitas populasi [12], dinamika vektor [13], [14], dan strategi intervensi [15], [16], [17].…”

Spatial Analysis on the Spread of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Baubau, Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia

“…For instance, Halide and Ridd (2008) developed a statistical model capable of forecasting DHF outbreaks up to six months in advance, utilizing current DHF cases, climate variables, and weather conditions. Similarly, Camargo et al (2022) devised a mathematical model that illustrates how infants born to mothers with immunity to certain dengue serotypes can still contract DHF, particularly during periods of elevated monocyte infection and dengue virus levels. In addition to these contributions, Nuraini and Tasman (2012), Gonçalves et al (2012), Bente and Rico-Hesse (2006), Tolinggi and Dengo (2019), Derouich et al (2003), and Esteva and Vargas (1999), have also explored modeling dengue transmission within the human population.…”