Spatiotemporal evolution of case fatality rates of COVID-19 in Brazil, 2020

Souza, Carlos Dornels Freire de; Paiva, João Paulo Silva de; Leal, Thiago Cavalcanti; Silva, Leonardo Feitosa da; Santos, Lucas Gomes

doi:10.36416/1806-3756/e20200208

Cited by 29 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…States with low testing capacity tend to generate higher CFRs, and recently many deaths with an undetermined cause have been reported in Brazil, which also affects the quality of the records [70]. Therefore, the analysis of lethality should take this combination of factors into account [71]. In the case of Esteio, it is the municipality that tested more proportionally to the number of cases (38,416 tests per 100,000 inhabitants), thus these underreporting biases should be less significant, in contrast to the observed in other Brazilian states.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Esteio, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

et al. 2021

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Background Brazil is the third country most affected by Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), but viral evolution in municipality resolution is still poorly understood in Brazil and it is crucial to understand the epidemiology of viral spread. We aimed to track molecular evolution and spread of Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Esteio (Southern Brazil) using phylogenetics and phylodynamics inferences from 21 new genomes in global and regional context. Importantly, the case fatality rate (CFR) in Esteio (3.26%) is slightly higher compared to the Rio Grande do Sul (RS) state (2.56%) and the entire Brazil (2.74%). Results We provided a comprehensive view of mutations from a representative sampling from May to October 2020, highlighting two frequent mutations in spike glycoprotein (D614G and V1176F), an emergent mutation (E484K) in spike Receptor Binding Domain (RBD) characteristic of the B.1.351 and P.1 lineages, and the adjacent replacement of 2 amino acids in Nucleocapsid phosphoprotein (R203K and G204R). E484K was found in two genomes from mid-October, which is the earliest description of this mutation in Southern Brazil. Lineages containing this substitution must be subject of intense surveillance due to its association with immune evasion. We also found two epidemiologically-related clusters, including one from patients of the same neighborhood. Phylogenetics and phylodynamics analysis demonstrates multiple introductions of the Brazilian most prevalent lineages (B.1.1.33 and B.1.1.248) and the establishment of Brazilian lineages ignited from the Southeast to other Brazilian regions. Conclusions Our data show the value of correlating clinical, epidemiological and genomic information for the understanding of viral evolution and its spatial distribution over time. This is of paramount importance to better inform policy making strategies to fight COVID-19.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Esteio, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

et al. 2021

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“…Recent studies (5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10) analyzed the dispersion of COVID-19 in some Brazilian municipalities and observed specific flows in each analyzed location. Furthermore, it is possible to notice that these flows can be influenced by factors related to socioeconomic, cultural, and health inequalities (8).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil

Castro

Santos²,

Sousa

et al. 2021

Epidemiol. Infect.

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The objective of this study was to analyse the dynamics of spatial dispersion of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Brazil by correlating them to socioeconomic indicators. This is an ecological study of COVID-19 cases and deaths between 26 February and 31 July 2020. All Brazilian counties were used as units of analysis. The incidence, mortality, Bayesian incidence and mortality rates, global and local Moran indices were calculated. A geographic weighted regression analysis was conducted to assess the relationship between incidence and mortality due to COVID-19 and socioeconomic indicators (independent variables). There were confirmed 2 662 485 cases of COVID-19 reported in Brazil from February to July 2020 with higher rates of incidence in the north and northeast. The Moran global index of incidence rate (0.50, P = 0.01) and mortality (0.45 with P = 0.01) indicate a positive spatial autocorrelation with high standards in the north, northeast and in the largest urban centres between cities in the southeast region. In the same period, there were 92 475 deaths from COVID-19, with higher mortality rates in the northern states of Brazil, mainly Amazonas, Pará and Amapá. The results show that there is a geospatial correlation of COVID-19 in large urban centres and regions with the lowest human development index in the country. In the geographic weighted regression, it was possible to identify that the percentage of people living in residences with density higher than 2 per dormitory, the municipality human development index (MHDI) and the social vulnerability index were the indicators that most contributed to explaining incidence, social development index and the municipality human development index contributed the most to the mortality model. We hope that the findings will contribute to reorienting public health responses to combat COVID-19 in Brazil, the new epicentre of the disease in South America, as well as in other countries that have similar epidemiological and health characteristics to those in Brazil.

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“…The first death was recorded 21 days later 9 , on 17 March 2020, when the country registered 293 official cases. Since then, the SARS-CoV-2 has spread to all Brazilian states 10–12 , achieving around 3 million reported cases and 100 thousand deaths by the time of submission 13,14 . These numbers that make Brazil the second nation in the numbers of officially reported cases and deaths by early August 2020.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 mortality according to civilian records

Lovisolo

Catalão²,

Burgos

et al. 2020

Preprint

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In this short report, we bring some data-driven analyses of COVID-19 mortality in Brazil. The impact of COVID-19 is evaluated by comparing the 2019 and 2020 civilian death records. There is evidence of a considerable excess of deaths since the pandemic started with respect to the previous year. In some states, it is clear that not all excess of deaths in 2020 is due to COVID-19, but to other respiratory causes that did not present the same prevalence in the previous year. Because of this unusual behavior of respiratory deaths, we may infer the evidence of a huge amount of under-reporting deaths due to the COVID-19. The data also shows that COVID-19 has produced an excess death in all ages besides people above 90 and below 10 years. In addition, when separates by sex, data indicate a larger increase in the deaths among males than females.

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Spatiotemporal evolution of case fatality rates of COVID-19 in Brazil, 2020

Cited by 29 publications

References 3 publications

Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Esteio, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Esteio, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

Spatial dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil

COVID-19 mortality according to civilian records

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