Spatial dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil

Abstract

The objective of this study was to analyse the dynamics of spatial dispersion of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Brazil by correlating them to socioeconomic indicators. This is an ecological study of COVID-19 cases and deaths between 26 February and 31 July 2020. All Brazilian counties were used as units of analysis. The incidence, mortality, Bayesian incidence and mortality rates, global and local Moran indices were calculated. A geographic weighted regression analysis was conducted to assess the relationship between incidence and mortality due to COVID-19 and socioeconomic indicators (independent variables). There were confirmed 2 662 485 cases of COVID-19 reported in Brazil from February to July 2020 with higher rates of incidence in the north and northeast. The Moran global index of incidence rate (0.50, P = 0.01) and mortality (0.45 with P = 0.01) indicate a positive spatial autocorrelation with high standards in the north, northeast and in the largest urban centres between cities in the southeast region. In the same period, there were 92 475 deaths from COVID-19, with higher mortality rates in the northern states of Brazil, mainly Amazonas, Pará and Amapá. The results show that there is a geospatial correlation of COVID-19 in large urban centres and regions with the lowest human development index in the country. In the geographic weighted regression, it was possible to identify that the percentage of people living in residences with density higher than 2 per dormitory, the municipality human development index (MHDI) and the social vulnerability index were the indicators that most contributed to explaining incidence, social development index and the municipality human development index contributed the most to the mortality model. We hope that the findings will contribute to reorienting public health responses to combat COVID-19 in Brazil, the new epicentre of the disease in South America, as well as in other countries that have similar epidemiological and health characteristics to those in Brazil.

Geographical variation in demand, utilization, and outcomes of hospital services for COVID-19 in Brazil: A descriptive serial cross-sectional study

“…The findings for these regions evidenced the incapacity of the country, in the absence of a national coordination, to mitigate historically known and worrisome disparities, which acquired sharpness and escalated in the COVID-19 pandemic scenario [ 13 , 16 , 17 ]. COVID-19 has disproportionately affected states and municipalities with higher socioeconomic vulnerabilities [ 4 ], and, in large urban centers, the areas and population groups socially vulnerable [ 18 , 19 ].…”

COVID-19 mortality and lethality in the State of Pará, legal Amazon, Brazil

“…In the Northern region, the high mortality rate may be linked to the presence of the indigenous population 25 . All people are immunologically susceptible to COVID-19, however, this population is more vulnerable to epidemics due to worse social, economic and health conditions, increasing the spread of diseases 26 .…”

“…In addition, the difficulty of accessing health services, geographic distance, scarcity of human resources in the areas of health and language, and a lifestyle that allows them to be more exposed to infectious diseases, such as living in collective houses and sharing personal utensils are all favorable factors. Many indigenous people have already been victims of COVID-19, but the difficulty in diagnosing and notifying the inhabitants of indigenous areas contributes to the underreporting of the number of cases and deaths [25][26][27] .…”

Temporal variation of spatial autocorrelation of COVID-19 cases identified in Poland during the year from the beginning of the pandemic

“…The dominance of publications from China, the USA and Brazil is not so strong anymore. Most of the available studies are those that concern the development of the COVID-19 epidemic in individual countries (Danon et al, 2020;Gomes et al, 2020;Hernández-Flores et al, 2020;Hohl et al, 2020;Kim et al, 2020;Liu et al, 2020;Mollalo et al, 2020;Niu et al, 2020;Ramirez-Aldana, 2020;Castro et al, 2021;Gaudart et al, 2021;Gupta et al, 2021;Huang et al, 2021;Lipsitt et al, 2021;Mościcka et al, 2021;Vaz, 2021). Although so far rare, there are also available results of analyzes carried out on a supra-national scale, especially concerning the European Union (Mounir Amdaoud et al, 2020;Hass & Jokar Arsanjani, 2021;Sannigrahi et al, 2020), entire continents (Weiss et al, 2020 -Africa) and even the whole Earth (Shadi Nazari et al, 2020).…”