Bolsonarismo e as eleições de 2022

Abstract

RESUMO O artigo analisa os componentes ideológicos baseados em preferências sobre temas políticos do eleitor que apoia Jair Bolsonaro. O bolsonarismo é um alinhamento eleitoral de direita no Brasil, fortemente associado a dimensões de uma agenda conservadora, incluindo uma visão de mão dura no combate ao crime, uma forte reação culturalista a propostas progressistas de gênero, liberalismo econômico, contrário a políticas de inclusão social baseadas em cotas. Mais recentemente, o bolsonarismo incorporou o negacionismo frente à pandemia de Covid-19, adesão a teorias conspiratórias e opção por alternativas antidemocráticas. Testamos esse alinhamento usando dados da série de pesquisas de opinião pública a Cara da Democracia, para os anos de 2018 a 2022.

The Insurrectionist Playbook: Jair Bolsonaro and the National Congress of Brazil

“…We begin by examining the database of Bolsonaro’s public statements to identify instances of false claims of electoral fraud, broad and unqualified attacks on democratic institutions, and the out-group stereotyping of progressive groups that served as rationale for what was deemed a necessary intervention by the army and the annulment of the election (Rennó, 2022). Public statements that included no such elements were coded as 0 (no problematic content), with statements coded 1 dedicated to messages that attacked democratic institutions and indirectly framed the opposition candidate as an existential threat.…”

“…Bolsonaro’s symbolic politics shares several traits with such groups, including tropes of nationalism that lack however nativist undertones (Reis, 2020). In line with social identity theory, it also leverages political identity epitomized by conservative and religious sentiments (Rennó, 2022). The righteous rage that fueled much of the January 6 United States Capitol attack is correspondingly found in the moral quest of Bolsonaro’s base against what is perceived as a communist threat, with recurring narrative frames that resort to out-group stereotyping.…”

“…Often referred to as the "Tropical Trump" (Weizenmann, 2019), Bolsonaro resorted to "symbolic politics" and choreographed displays of conservative sentiments to rally his base (Watmough, 2021). During the campaign trail, Bolsonaro incorporated COVID-19 denialism, adherence to conspiracy theories, and open support for anti-democratic postures (Rennó, 2022).…”

Partisan Stereotyping and Polarization in Brazil

“…For example, Layton and colleagues (2021) note that although demographics have not historically predicted positive or negative partisanship, Bolsonaro's 2018 campaign divided voters to some degree on race, religion, and gender. 4 Similarly, summarizing results of the 2022 election, Hunter and Power (2023) revealed that Lula did better among Catholics, women, the poor, and Afro-Brazilians, while Bolsonaro did better among more affluent voters, whites, evangelicals, and men (see also Araújo 2022 andRennó 2022).…”

Polarização política e voto: o papel das questões morais e econômicas

“…No entanto, existem raras exceções que exploram e confirmam a importância dos temas políticos para o voto no Brasil. Assim, os temas econômicos importam para a decisão do voto e, mais recentemente, pelo menos desde a formação ideológica da direita no Brasil através do bolsonarismo, os temas da agenda moral ganharam relevância para o eleitorado (AMES; BAKER; RENNÓ, 2008;GREENE, 2011;GREENE, 2015;RENNÓ, 2020;RENNÓ, 2022). Ou seja, os eleitores decidem o voto com base nos temas econômicos e morais.…”