Resumo: Análise de risco de terrorismo é um dos maiores desafios enfrentados pelas autoridades que definem
Abstract:Terrorism risk assessment is one of the biggest challenges that authorities must face to define the defensive resource allocation policy for a country. This article provides a brief review of two approaches that have been traditionally used for this purpose: Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Game Theory. Additionally, it introduces the Adversary Risk Analysis approach to the Brazilian context; an innovative methodology that aims to assess risks caused by intelligent opponents. Finally, an application of Adversarial Risk Analysis in a hypothetical situation is presented. The results show that Adversarial Risk Analysis can be useful to support decisions about defensive resource allocation in contexts such as sports mega events, a reality for many countries around the world.