Expansão canavieira e o uso da terra no estado de São Paulo

Abstract

RESUMO Este estudo tem por objetivo avaliar a expansão canavieira no estado de São Paulo e a consequente competição pelo uso do solo em relação às demais atividades agropecuárias, entre 1995 e 2013. Para tanto, utiliza-se o modelo shift-share em duas etapas; inicialmente, com vistas à decomposição da taxa de crescimento do valor da produção de cana-de-açúcar - nos efeitos área, rendimento e preço -, e, em uma segunda etapa, tencionando avaliar a evolução da área com cana-de-açúcar - nos subefeitos escala e substituição. Os resultados sugerem que a expansão canavieira em São Paulo foi impulsionada, principalmente, pelo aumento da área cultivada e preços, com baixa contribuição do efeito rendimento. Ademais, o estudo permite concluir que a evolução da atividade representa um conflito pelo uso terra no estado, fato evidenciado pela elevada contribuição do efeito substituição na expansão da área cultivada.

Analysis of the agricultural productivity of the sugarcane crop in regions of new agricultural expansions of sugarcane

“…The contribution of the productivity factor was inexpressive, revealing a less costly strategy to increase the production of this crop. These results follow the studies presented by Camara & Caldarelli (2016), Castro et al (2010) and Nassar et al (2008) for other periods and regions.…”

“…According to Abdala & Ribeiro (2011), several authors have analyzed agricultural development, using a formal shift-share method, identifying sources of growth, performance and indicators of agricultural modernization. Similar studies were adopted by Camara & Caldarelli (2016) Abdala & Ribeiro (2011) and Camargo et al the sugarcane production lines of Goias was in 2004 and Mato Grosso do Sul was in 2005. This period coincides with the increase of ethanol demand due to the development of flex-fuel cars (Castro et al, 2010).…”

“…The challenges of incorporating technology, the low dynamism and inconsistencies in the productive environment, have prevented the increase of sugarcane agricultural productivity (Santos, 2016). The "area effect" is an indicator of variation in sugarcane production, resulting from the incorporation of new areas and/or crop substitution, which are related to changes in the agrarian structure (Camara & Caldarelli, 2016;Lourenzani & Caldas, 2014. The "productivity effect" represents the variation in sugarcane production due to the intensification of the means of production, including the improvement of applied technology, the use of more adapted sugarcane varieties, mechanization efficiency in planting and harvesting, and increasing production per unit of area (Abdala & Ribeiro, 2011;Nyko et al, 2013).…”

“…Although the condition mentioned to explain the fall of 2011 are characterized as conjunctures, the trend of productivity decreases over the period of analysis in the states of Goias and Mato Grosso do Sul consists in a structural character. For Camara & Caldarelli (2016), in order to compensate stagnation and the decrease in productivity, a less costly strategy is expand production based on extensive land use and less investments in improvements and technology was adopted. According to Nyko et al (2013) this is characterized as a structural problem.…”

Unfolding additional massive cutback effects of the Native Vegetation Protection Law on Legal Reserves, Brazil

“…In this period NV was converted mainly for sugarcane plantations, which was expanding quickly in the region, boosted by incentives given through the "National Alcohol Program" (Pró-Alcool) (Bastos 2007, Natale Netto 2007, Camara & Caldarelli 2016. By that time, driven by favorable soil and climate conditions, sugarcane expanded over a large extent of Cerrado NV, increasing deforestation rates at this biome (Durigan et al 2004, Kronka et al 2005, Takaaki et al 2015.…”