O Brasil no mundo: conjecturas e cenários

Abstract

RESUMO -O PRESENTE artigo resume parte dos resultados de um amplo projeto sobre o Brasil ante cenários internacionais possíveis. Adotando a postura prospectiva que informou todo esse projeto, o artigo indica algumas das linhas de força que deverão estabelecer o elo entre o sistema internacional presente e o que haverá no futuro, em um horizonte de vinte anos, destacando entre outros o papel dos EUA, da Europa e da China nesse processo. Quatro cenários são utilizados como base para a análise do caso brasileiro: Desconcentração conflituosa, Multipolaridade benigna, Unipolar consolidado e Ordem liberal cosmopolita. Considera-se aqui o Brasil como um país intermediário, afastado das áreas críticas de tensão internacional, e que, portanto, dispõe de certa margem de manobra e razoável condição para definir suas estratégias internacionais. PALAVRAS-CHAVE:Relações internacionais, Cenários, Unipolaridade, Multipolaridade, Brasil, Geopolítica, Ordem internacional, Política externa.ABSTRACT -THIS article presents part of the results of a broad research about Brazil and international scenarios. Assuming the same prospective view of the research project, this article indicates a few current driving forces that will contribute to define international order in the future, in a 20 years perspective. The roles of the USA, Europe and China are highlighted in this analysis. Four scenarios are used as parameters for the analysis of the Brazilian case: conflictive deconcentration, benign multipolarity; consolidated unipolarity and cosmopolitan liberal order. We consider Brazil as an Intermediate State out of the critical areas of international conflict. We also consider that Brazil has certain margin for maneuver and reasonable amount of capacity to define its international strategies.

Is Politics Behind Trade? The Impact of International Trends and Diplomatic Action on Brazil's Exports during Globalisation

“…Lula's time in power included the consolidation of Chinese expansion, which led to an increase in the price of raw materials, while promoting a decrease in the price of manufactured goods. The full impact of China on the world system over the long term remains unclear (Cruz and Sennes, : 31), yet one can see why, in such a context, the US market and the FTAA (which was scheduled to start in 2005) kept being deprioritised (Presidência da República, ). After almost ten years, Amorim became the Minister of Foreign Relations again, and preferred to negotiate the agreement in coordination with Brazil's MERCOSUR partners, a desire which Cardoso had expressed in his last years in office (Cardoso, ; Oliveira, : 311–329).…”