Abstract. A total of 56 years (1961–2016) of daily surface downward solar
irradiation, sunshine duration, diurnal temperature range and the fraction
of the sky covered by clouds in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, were
analysed. The main purpose was to contribute to the characterization and
understanding of the dimming and brightening effects on solar global
radiation in this part of South America. As observed in most of the previous
studies worldwide, in this study, during the period between 1961 and the early
1980s, a negative trend in surface solar irradiation was detected in
São Paulo, characterizing the occurrence of a dimming effect. Sunshine
duration and the diurnal temperature range also presented negative trends,
in opposition to the positive trend observed in the cloud cover fraction.
However, a brightening effect, as observed in western industrialized
countries in more recent years, was not observed. Instead, for surface
downward irradiation, the negative trend persisted, with a trend of −0.13 MJ m−2 per decade, with a p value of 0.006, for the 56 years of data and
in consonance with the cloud cover fraction increasing trend, but not
statistically significant, of 0.3 % per decade (p value = 0.198). The
trends for sunshine duration and the diurnal temperature range, by contrast,
changed signal, as confirmed by a piecewise linear regression model. Some
possible causes for the discrepancy are discussed, such as the frequency of
fog occurrence, urban heat island effects, horizontal visibility (as a proxy
for aerosol loading variability) and greenhouse gas concentration increase.
Future studies on the aerosol effect are planned, particularly with higher
temporal resolution, as well as modelling studies, to better analyse the
contribution of each possible cause.