Modeling economic growth fuelled by science and technology

Abstract

Este artigo propõe um modelo de simulação para investigar a contribuição da ciência e da tecnologia para o crescimento econômico. O ponto de partida são os sistemas nacionais de inovação, um conceito que sintetiza a capacitação tecnológica das nações. Desta forma, o modelo pode preservar simplicidade e parcimônia. Os dados coletados (patentes, artigos e PIB e população, para 183 países) indicam uma forte correlação entre ciência, tecnologia e renda. Três exercícios com simulações são realizados para diversos momentos do tempo, mostrando a progressiva aderência do modelo a essas variáveis tecnológicas. Palavras-Chavesistemas nacionais de inovação, patente, ciência, competitividade, crescimento econômico Abstract This paper suggests a simulation model to investigate how science and technology fuel economic growth. This model is built upon a synthesis of technological capabilities represented by national innovation systems. This paper gathers data of papers and patents for 183 countries between 1999 and 2003, as well as GDP and population for 2003. These data show a strong correlation between science, technology and income. Three simulation exercises are performed. Feeding our algorithm with data for population, patents and scientific papers, we obtain the world income distribution. These results support our conjecture on the role of science and technology as sources of the wealth of nations.

Forecasting countries' gross domestic product from patent data

“…The above two studies and related works lack a predictive analysis that shows whether variables related to technological development can forecast the future GDP of countries. In this respect, the work of Bernardes et al [26] went one step further. The authors collected paper and patent data for 183 countries from 1999 to 2003, as well as the population and GDP data in 2003, and built a model to simulate a world economy which has a high correlation with the real world, revealing the positive correlations between scientific activities, technological innovation, and national income.…”

“…Thanks to the increasing availability of high-resolution data on countries' economic activities, researchers have the opportunity to move from the above theories to the validation in practice, which provided empirical evidence for the positive relationship between national technological development and economic growth [22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29]. For example, Adak et al [22] found a positive correlation between the number of patent applications in Turkey and the country's GDP growth.…”

The Influential Knowledge Factors of Companies’ Performance in Slovenia

“…This is almost the same amount as the scientific-research budget of the European Commission (UNESCO 2008). Ribeiro et al (2010) found a strong correlation between science and technology and the gross domestic product (GDP). Economic growth depends on scientific and technological resources.…”

Research infrastructures in developing countries: The Brazilian case

“…In developing countries science could have different roles as they face negative characteristics such as social problems and low levels of private R&D activities, some have existing scientific infrastructuresbut with few areas reaching international levels, poor articulation and interaction among actors and low absorptive capacity. For those countries, science and research infrastructures may contribute significantly to the country's economic development and growth through technological and innovative efforts (Bernardes & Albuquerque, 2003;Ribeiro et al¸2010). An effective research infrastructure in a developing country can produce scientific results able to play a sort of "antenna role" or a sort of "focusing device" -i.e., "an instrument to focus the direction of technological progress" (Rosenberg, 1976).…”