Risk analysis of climate change on coffee nematodes and leaf miner in Brazil

Ghini, R.; Hamada, E.; Júnior, Mário José Pedro; Marengo, José A.; Gonçalves, Renata Ribeiro do Valle

doi:10.1590/s0100-204x2008000200005

Cited by 82 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…One of such limitations is that most of the studies consider crops are free of insects, diseases and weeds (Lal et al, 1998;Streck et al, 2006), but some studies have demonstrated that plant pests increase in climate change scenarios (Ghini et al, 2008). These results showed that current modern rice genotypes could be less competitive with red rice in simulated future climates.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of increasing mean air temperature on the development of rice and red rice

Lago

Streck

Alberto

et al. 2008

Pesq. agropec. bras.

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-The objective of this study was to assess the development response of cultivated rice and red rice to different increases in minimum and maximum daily air temperatures, in Santa Maria, Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil. One hundred years climate scenarios of temperatures 0, +1, +2, +3, +4, and +5 o C, with symmetric and asymmetric increases in minimum and maximum daily air temperatures were created, using the LARS-WG Weather Generator, and a 1969-2003 database. Nine cultivated rice genotypes (IRGA 421, IRGA 416, IRGA 417, IRGA 420, BRS 7 TAIM, BR-IRGA 409, EPAGRI 109, EEA 406 and a hybrid), and two red rice biotypes (awned black hull-ABHRR, and awned yellow hull-AYHRR) were used. The dates of panicle differentiation (R1), anthesis (R4), and all grains with brown hulls (R9) were estimated with a nonlinear simulation model. Overall, the duration of the emergence-R1 phase decreased, whereas the duration of the R1-R4 and R4-R9 phases most often increased, as temperature increased in the climate change scenarios. The simulated rice development response to elevated temperature was not the same, when the increase in minimum and maximum temperature was symmetric or asymmetric.Index terms: Oryza sativa, global warming, phenology, simulation, weeds. Impacto do aumento na temperatura média do ar sobre o desenvolvimento do arroz e do arroz-vermelhoResumo -O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a resposta do desenvolvimento do arroz cultivado e do arroz vermelho a diferentes aumentos nas temperaturas mínima e máxima diárias do ar, em Santa Maria, RS, Brasil. Foram criados cenários climáticos de cem anos de 0, +1, +2, +3, +4 e +5 o C, com aumentos simétricos e assimétricos nas temperaturas mínima e máxima diária do ar, usando o Weather Generator LARS-WG e uma base de dados de 1969-2003. Foram usados nove genótipos de arroz cultivado (IRGA 421, IRGA 416, IRGA 417, IRGA 420, BRS 7 TAIM, BR-IRGA 409, EPAGRI 109, um híbrido e EEA 406) e dois biótipos de arroz-vermelho (casca preta aristado e casca amarela aristado). A data da diferenciação da panícula (R1), a antese (R4) e todos os grãos com casca marrom (R9) foram estimados com um modelo não linear. Em geral, a duração da fase emergência-R1 diminuiu, enquanto a duração das fases R1-R4 e R4-R9 aumentaram, com o aumento da temperatura nos cenários de mudança climática. A resposta simulada do desenvolvimento do arroz à elevação da temperatura não foi a mesma, quando o aumento na temperatura mínima e máxima foi simétrico ou assimétrico.Termos para indexação: Oryza sativa, aquecimento global, fenologia, simulação, planta daninha.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of increasing mean air temperature on the development of rice and red rice

Lago

Streck

Alberto

et al. 2008

Pesq. agropec. bras.

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“…The infestation of L. coffeella will increase on coffee crops under future scenarios when compared with the climatological normal from 1961-1990(Ghini et al, 2008.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Leaf miner incidence in coffee plants under different drip irrigation regimes and planting densities

Assis

Assis²,

Scalco

et al. 2012

Pesq. agropec. bras.

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-The objective of this work was to evaluate the effect of different drip irrigation regimes and planting densities on the incidence of the leaf miner, Leucoptera coffeella, in arabica coffee plants for one year. The experiment was carried out in 2008, in a complete randomized block design, in a split-plot in time arrangement, with four replicates. The treatments consisted of four drip irrigation regimes -soil water balance, irrigations at 20 and 60 kPa soil tensions, and a nonirrigated treatment -, which were distributed at three plant densities: 2,500, 5,000, and 10,000 plants per hectare. The evaluations were made on a monthly basis between January and December 2008. The highest pest occurrence period was from August to November, a season with low-air relative humidity preceded by a drought period. Irrigated coffee plants showed an incidence of intact mines 2.2 times lower than that of nonirrigated plants. Irrigation and increasing of plant density contribute to the reduction of coffee leaf miner occurrence.

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“…Some countries, traditionally coffee producers, are expected to suffer drastic impacts on the quantity and quality of coffee production, due to climate changes and global warming, related to extreme climate events, especially high air temperatures and changes in the amount and pattern of rainfall (Eakin et al, 2006;Schroth et al, 2009;Tucker et al 2010;Davis et al, 2012;Baca et al, 2014;Bunn et al, 2015;Ovalle et al, 2015), as well as the probable higher incidence of plagues and diseases (Ghini et al, 2008;Jaramillo et al 2009;Moraes et al, 2012;Mendes et al, 2012). In fact, modeling studies have foreseen dramatic effects of environmental changes on the world's coffee supply, mostly linked to an increase in air temperature and considering C. arabica.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%