Hand-Foot-and-Mouth Disease Epidemiological Status and Relationship With Meteorological Variables in Guangzhou, Southern China, 2008-2012

Abstract

Hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is becoming one of the extremely common airborne and contact transmission diseases in Guangzhou, southern China, leading public health authorities to be concerned about its increased incidence. In this study, it was used an ecological study plus the negative binomial regression to identify the epidemic status of HFMD and its relationship with meteorological variables. During 2008-2012, a total of 173,524 HFMD confirmed cases were reported, 12 cases of death, yielding a fatality rate of 0.69 per 10,000. The annual incidence rates from 2008 to 2012 were 60.56, 132.44, 311.40, 402.76, and 468.59 (per 100,000), respectively, showing a rapid increasing trend. Each 1 °C rise in temperature corresponded to an increase of 9.47% (95% CI 9.36% to 9.58%) in the weekly number of HFMD cases, while a one hPa rise in atmospheric pressure corresponded to a decrease in the number of cases by 7.53% (95% CI -7.60% to -7.45%). Similarly, each one percent rise in relative humidity corresponded to an increase of 1.48% or 3.3%, and a one meter per hour rise in wind speed corresponded to an increase of 2.18% or 4.57%, in the weekly number of HFMD cases, depending on the variables considered in the model. These findings revealed that epidemic status of HFMD in Guangzhou is characterized by high morbidity but low fatality. Weather factors had a significant influence on the incidence of HFMD.

Influence of meteorological variables on dengue incidence in the municipality of Arapiraca, Alagoas, Brazil

“…In contrast with previous studies, we found that WS and WD also influence the MID 11,22,23 . Furthermore, a previous study showed that changes in wind pattern (magnitude, frequency, and direction) can affect the dispersion and survival of population of mosquitoes 24,25 .…”

“…The results of the dengue-1 model suggest that R associated with increasing AT, DPT, and RH resulted in an increase in the MID, in conjunction with that reported previously 7,11,21 .…”

“…WD also presents variations between Northeastern (90º) and Southeastern (150º), associated to local characteristics such as topography and regional atmospheric pattern. However, WS acts as inhibitory variable for MID occurrence 11,12,24 . The thermodynamics variables (AT, DPT and RH) boosted a moderate MID occurrence 11,21 .…”

Socio-ecological factors and hand, foot and mouth disease in dry climate regions: a Bayesian spatial approach in Gansu, China

“…However, another study on the short-term effects of daily meteorological factors on the HFMD showed relative humidity had a negative effect at lag 1 day and positive effects on lag 5-7 days (Wu et al 2014). A similar association between relative humidity and the HFMD was observed in two other studies (Chen et al 2014;Li et al 2014). Additionally, the association between ecological factors and HFMD has a non-linear relationship, which was not analyzed in this study (Li et al 2015;Zhang et al 2016).…”

Isolation and characterization of dengue virus serotype 2 from the large dengue outbreak in Guangdong, China in 2014

“…However, the threat of dengue epidemics in China is increasing, due to the rapid urbanization and environmental and climate factors [6]. Guangdong province lies in southeastern China, characterized with humid subtropical climate, where the Aedes mosquitos are widely distributed and can breed throughout the year.…”