Análise de sensibilidade

Mattos, Antônio Carlos Marques; Vasconcellos, Heraldo

doi:10.1590/s0034-75901989000100011

“…Segundo Mattos (1989), com o passar dos anos, os pesquisadores foram verificando que as famosas "curvas de probabilidade" não eram assim tão indispensáveis, e o risco poderia ser analisado a contento, bastando que se fornecesse a faixa de variação associada a cada elemento do fluxo, bem como de seus prazos.…”

Section: Análise De Sensibilidadeunclassified

ANÁLISE ECONÔMICA DO CULTIVO DE AÇAIZEIRO (Euterpe oleracea Mart.) IRRIGADO NO NORDESTE PARAENSE

Viana¹,

Homma²,

Menezes³

et al. 2021

Terceira Margem

0

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Análise econômica do cultivo de açaizeiro (Euterpe oleracea Mart.) plantado em terra firme é essencial devido ao alto investimento em irrigação. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a viabilidade econômica de uma plantação comercial de açaizeiro irrigado por microaspersão. A plantação, de 16 ha e com plantas de 8 anos, estava localizada no município de Igarapé-Açu, estado do Pará, e foi instalada e conduzida segundo práticas regionais de cultivo. Para avaliar a viabilidade, os seguintes índices econômicos foram calculados: valor presente líquido (VPL), valor presente líquido anualizado (VPLa), índice benefício-custo (IBC), retorno adicional sobre investimento (Roia), taxa interna de retorno (TIR) e payback descontado. O fluxo de caixa foi dimensionado para um período de 20 anos, e a taxa mínima de atratividade (TMA) foi fi xada em 6,93%. Para a estrutura de produção avaliada na propriedade onde a plantação se encontrava, atestou-se elevada viabilidade econômica da atividade, com riqueza acrescentada em VPL da ordem de R$ 983.394,31 para um horizonte de 20 anos de projeto. A atividade de açaizeiro irrigado por microaspersão é viável, com rendimento líquido de R$ 3.860,40/ha e ganho real de 13,07%, descontada ataxa real de juros empregada no cálculo do VPL.

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“…TIR " " q rw p rw`qdr p dr`p q tr`qdr q p pc ‰ t f`p q rw p rtr`qdr p rdr q n r k t (16) where: TIR-cost of tires; q rw -quantity of tires for rear-wheel drive axle; p rw -price of tires for rear-wheel drive axle; q dr -quantity of tires for directional axle; p dr -price of tires for directional axle; p pc -price of protector and air chamber; t f -failure rate related to the loss of tires (50.0%); p rtr -price of retreading tire for rear-wheel drive axle; p rdr -price of retreading tire for directional axle; n r -number of retreading; k t -total mileage of the tires.…”

Section: ‚ Tiresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multibody Dynamic Stress Simulation of Rigid-Flexible Shovel Crawler Shoes

Frimpong

¹

,

Thiruvengadam

²

2016

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Abstract:The uncertainty in road transportation of wood is inherent to its operational costs, to the amount of transported wood, to the traveled distance, to its revenue, and more. Although it is not possible to measure this uncertainty fully, it can be quantified by the investment risk, which is the probability and degree of financial loss. The objective of this study is to quantify the financial risk of the investment in wood transportation through Monte Carlo simulation, which uses realistic situations to estimate the operational cost of vehicles used for road transportation of wood. We quantify these uncertainties by assessing financial risk and building pseudorandom scenarios with the Monte Carlo simulation method, in addition to the Net Present Value techniques, the Modified Internal Rate of Return, and the Profitability Index, all commonly used in financial investment projects. The results show that the estimated operational costs are equivalent to the actual ones, along with the evidence that the cost of fuel, the driver's manpower, and tires are components that mainly increase the degree of financial risk for an investment project in road transportation of wood. In contrast, optimizing the amount of transported wood and maximizing wood transportation cost have a significant and positive correlation with the volume of transported wood and the average price of wood transportation, leading to a reduction in the degree of financial risk.

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Quantitative Analysis of Uncertainty in Financial Risk Assessment of Road Transportation of Wood in Uruguay

Simões

¹

,

Mosquera

²

,

Batistela

³

et al. 2016

Forests

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Abstract:The uncertainty in road transportation of wood is inherent to its operational costs, to the amount of transported wood, to the traveled distance, to its revenue, and more. Although it is not possible to measure this uncertainty fully, it can be quantified by the investment risk, which is the probability and degree of financial loss. The objective of this study is to quantify the financial risk of the investment in wood transportation through Monte Carlo simulation, which uses realistic situations to estimate the operational cost of vehicles used for road transportation of wood. We quantify these uncertainties by assessing financial risk and building pseudorandom scenarios with the Monte Carlo simulation method, in addition to the Net Present Value techniques, the Modified Internal Rate of Return, and the Profitability Index, all commonly used in financial investment projects. The results show that the estimated operational costs are equivalent to the actual ones, along with the evidence that the cost of fuel, the driver's manpower, and tires are components that mainly increase the degree of financial risk for an investment project in road transportation of wood. In contrast, optimizing the amount of transported wood and maximizing wood transportation cost have a significant and positive correlation with the volume of transported wood and the average price of wood transportation, leading to a reduction in the degree of financial risk.

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Análise de sensibilidade

Cited by 3 publications

References 35 publications

ANÁLISE ECONÔMICA DO CULTIVO DE AÇAIZEIRO (Euterpe oleracea Mart.) IRRIGADO NO NORDESTE PARAENSE

ANÁLISE ECONÔMICA DO CULTIVO DE AÇAIZEIRO (Euterpe oleracea Mart.) IRRIGADO NO NORDESTE PARAENSE

Multibody Dynamic Stress Simulation of Rigid-Flexible Shovel Crawler Shoes

Quantitative Analysis of Uncertainty in Financial Risk Assessment of Road Transportation of Wood in Uruguay

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