Economic voting in Brazilian presidential elections: evidence with panel data from municipalities in São Paulo

Abstract

This paper uses a new data panel of 625 Brazilian municipalities over 5 election years to analyze the influence of the local level economic performance on the proportion of votes obtained by the incumbent in national elections. We examine municipalities from the State of São Paulo, the most populous Brazilian state, using fixed-effects and random- effects models. The results suggest that the performance of the local economy is relevant in the national elections. Apart from that, the results also suggest that the mayors play an important role in the national elections when it comes to transfer votes that are favorable to the coalition in power and that the richest municipalities tend to be more opposition prone.

For whom the bell tolls: Party mediation effects on economic voting in a large democratic federation

“…Using panel data fixed‐effects models, we test whether the political alliances across the three federative levels affected electoral performance or—more importantly—moderated the electoral impact of local growth. We work on the findings of Fernandes and Fernandes (2017, 2019), who document strong evidence that the electoral performance of presidents and mayors are affected by economic performance. However, they have not analyzed how the political alliances between the different levels of the federation can affect those relations.…”

“…For example, the growth of an industrial cluster in state A may result from industrial plants closure in state B. At the state level, the aggregate impact can be positive or negative, but these are quite different local economic experiences in a disaggregated way , 2019. Most of the studies on economic voting have focused on how national conditions or individuals' well-being affect voting decisions (Duch & Stevenson, 2008;Orth, 2001).…”