For whom the bell tolls: Party mediation effects on economic voting in a large democratic federation

Abstract

This article analyzes the effect of economic growth on executive elections in the context of a multilevel governance structure and how party ties across federal, state, and local levels affect the relationship, using data from Brazilian municipalities. We test the hypothesis that the president is the main politician accountable for economic performance, measured by local growth, and that party politics moderates the evaluation of the economic performance of state governors and the president. Our research shows that there is a high degree of interdependence between levels of government in the evaluation of economic performance. We highlight how party alliances strongly moderate the economic performance effects at the different levels. Using aggregate local level-municipality panel data and fixed effects estimations, we show that the previous year's economic growth positively impacts the percentage of votes obtained by the incumbent in the presidential elections and that those effects are higher in states whose governors are allied to the president.

A Farewell to Arms: Brazilian Politics and Blame Avoidance during the COVID‐19 Pandemic

“…Subnational governments are in charge of the most relevant health services, as hospitals and doctors are the responsibility of local and state governments (Teixeira, Fernandes and Leite, 2017). The federal government, in turn, is responsible for coordinating the health policies and, above all, is held accountable for the country's macroeconomic performance (Fernandes, Fernandes and Zimerman 2022).…”

Note from the Editors

“…Next, Okolikj and others (2022) add to our past P&P articles on economic voting and party identification (see e.g., Dettrey, 2013; Fernandes et al, 2022; Stegmaier & Lewis‐Beck, 2009) in their aggregate analysis testing whether partisanship is endogenous to the macroeconomy—and, thus, questioning the extent to which partisan bias contaminates voters' economic perceptions. They find that economic performance matters to those who identify with a political party primarily when it governs and its policies can be blamed for the economic outcomes.…”