Confiança nas Forças Armadas brasileiras: uma análise empírica a partir dos dados da pesquisa SIPS - Defesa Nacional

Abstract

Resumo: Este artigo tem como propósito identificar os condicionantes associados ao grau de confiança da população brasileira nas Forças Armadas do país. A principal fonte de dados foi um survey nacional realizado pelo Ipea em 2011 no âmbito da pesquisa "Sistema de Indicadores de Percepção Social", com foco em questões relacionados à defesa e segurança (SIPSDefesa Nacional). A partir das informações coletadas no survey e à luz da literatura sobre o tema, construiu-se um conjunto de variáveis independentes, cujo impacto sobre a confiança foi então testado por meio de um modelo de regressão ordinal. A principal conclusão do trabalho é que, não obstante prevaleça um elevado nível de confiança nas Forças Armadas entre todos os estratos da população brasileira, essa confiança é impactada de forma distinta de acordo com os condicionantes socioeconômicos e regionais e a percepção dos indivíduos acerca da legitimidade e efetividade de determinadas políticas públicas.Palavras-chave: Forças Armadas; Brasil; confiança; opinião pública; regressão ordinal Abstract: This article aims to identify the variables associated to the Brazilian population trust in the country's Armed Forces. The main source of data is a national survey conducted by Ipea in 2011 through the research project "System of Indicators of Social Perception", with focus on defense and security issues. By organizing the survey data in the light of the literature on the subject, we built up a set of independent variables, whose impact on confidence was then tested using a model of ordinal regression. The main conclusion is that, despite prevails a high level of confidence in the military among all strata of the population, that trust is impacted differently according to socioeconomic and regional conditions, as well as the perception of individuals about the legitimacy and effectiveness of specific public policies.

Bureaucratic Politicization, Partisan Attachments, and the Limits of Public Agency Legitimacy: The Venezuelan Armed Forces under Chavismo

“…Although demographic and agency performance may affect public opinion of the armed forces during peacetime (Leal 2005;Kaipper Ceratti, Moraes, and Silva 2015;Tiargan-Orr and Eran-Jona 2016), the Venezuelan case demonstrates that the substantive effect of these factors may also pale in comparison to the effect of political leanings. In doing so, the results support the long line of political behavior research beginning with Campbell and colleagues (1960) that shows how important partisanship is in structuring political opinions toward a variety of areas, individuals, and institutions.…”

“…Outside the United States, Tiargan-Orr and Eran-Jona (2016) found that the Israeli public's trust in the Israel Defense Forces is generally high across demographic indicators, although it increases during periods of military confrontation. Similarly, in an examination of the Brazilian armed forces, Kaipper Ceratti, Moraes, and Silva (2015) found that trust varies by socioeconomic and regional conditions, as well as by individuals' perceptions about the legitimacy and effectiveness of specific public policies.…”

Legal Cynicism, Intrusive Policing, and the Dynamics of Police Legitimacy: Evidence from Brazil’s Largest City

“…Probably as a consequence, police-citizen relations are marked by negative attitudes towards legal authority. Studies show that Brazilians distrust the police (Silva and Beato 2013; Oliveira Junior 2011) and other legal institutions (Filgueiras 2013;Ceratti et al 2015), and fear police officers (Jackson et al 2021).…”