Contemporary Economic Determinants for the Choice of the Leaders of the Brazilian Public Administration

Abstract

The Brazilian national elections of 2018 constitute a milestone as the first election in the history of the Brazilian public administration in which there was restriction of donations of legal entities. This paper aims to analyze the influence of economic power on electoral choice, for which a prediction model based on financial and political-ideological variables is proposed, identifying if the odds ratio is increased for candidates with greater economic-financial disposition. We proposed a logistic regression model and estimated the probability of success in the electoral campaign and its relationship with the variables. We collected the data from the open base of the Brazilian Electoral Justice, totaling a universe of 46,867 valid applications in 2018 and 2014. The results show a new logistic regression model, in which it was verified that the candidate's condition to seek his re-election is the factor of greater relationship with the ratio of chances of electoral success, increasing by 6 times the chances of a candidate succeeding in the election. Economic-financial variables of interest confirmed the influence that economic power has on the election process in the same way as the dominant ideology in central government, leaving the results of financing by legal entities conflicting.

Percepção da Confiabilidade nas Eleições de 2018

“…Enquanto a maior parte dos respondentes reconhecem a existência dessa informação, uma maioria significativa de 79% não confia que esses dados são corretamente declarados pelos candidatos, enquanto somente 6% confiam de que esses bens seriam corretamente declarados. Essa falta de confiança corrobora as críticas e evidências de que as informações patrimoniais revelam inconsistências e potenciais irregularidades (SALLABERRY et al, 2019;SOUTO-MAIOR;BORBA, 2019).…”

“…É pressuposto da teoria da contabilidade que a acessibilidade às informações econômico-financeiras pode ocasionar reação do mercado, ou no presente caso, da sociedade como mecanismo auxiliar na tomada de decisão de seus usuários -os eleitores (HENDRIKSEN; VAN BREDA, 2009;IUDÍCIBUS, 2012). Estudos abordando a utilidade da informação contábil são comuns no mercado de capitais, seja para verificação da relação de resultados e valores de mercado (NARDI; AMADI; SILVA, 2019), bem como nas demonstrações do terceiro setor (RAMOS; KLANN, 2015), e do setor público (DIAS; CASTRO VASCONCELOS, 2015), enquanto no âmbito da informação eleitoral são escassos FLACH, 2019).…”

Defining Resilience Index Based on Gaussian Distribution

“…One of the most important statistical analyses has to do with normal or Gaussian distribution, in which the available data are randomly distributed (Snedecor & Cochran, 1967, Daly et al, 1995. There are many examples reported about that not only in exact and biological sciences, but also in social and human sciences (Limpert, Stahel & Abbt, 2001, Krithikadatta 2014, Altman & Bland, 1995, Sallaberry & Flach, 2019, Livingston, 2004, Daly et al, 1995, Lyon 2014, Nagel 2010, Hebner, 2021. A good example related to the prediction of the human beings' behaviors has to do with elections, in which a survey applied to thousands of people some days before an election can predict the result due to millions of voters (Fortunato 2007, Klimeka et al, 2012, Borghesi & Bouchaud, 2010, Shalders, 2018.…”

Crowdfunding e desempenho eleitoral no Brasil: análise estatística das eleições para deputado federal em 2018

“…F. A. L. Fernandes & G. A. A. L. Fernandes, 2017;Sallaberry & Flach, 2019). Entre os determinantes que influenciam positivamente estão a busca da reeleição, o desempenho fiscal, o investimento público em períodos próximos à eleição, além de atributos pessoais como sexo e profissão do candidato.…”