Testando teorias para o consumo agregado no Brasil

Abstract

Resumo AbstractIn this paper, theories to describe aggregate consumption in Brazil are tested. Two datasets were utilized, one comprising yearly observations from 1947 to 2012, and another comprising quarterly observations, from the fi rst quarter of 1991 to the second quarter of 2014. Our methodological approach was based on the use of BDS statistics to determine which theoretical and/or empirical model properly fi ts the features of time series. According to our results, the random-walk Permanent Income Hypothesis was not supported by the data, due to excess of sensitivity which can, to some extent, be explained by credit constraints. In this sense, a standard version of the consumption function with excess of sensitivity was estimated by assuming the error correction model. Once we accounted for (possible) multiple structural breaks in the latter consumption function, we cannot reject the null of IID residuals. Hence, we conclude that consumption in Brazil is better modeled as being sensitive to current income variations, which opens room for effective stabilization policies in the country.

Essays on households\' consumption and saving

“…Such a cross-sectional association is rather informative. The existing literature based on aggregate data has often presented evidence that the current income is the primary determinant of consumption in Brazil, although whether due to myopia or credit restriction remains under discussion (LOPES, 2017;GOMES, 2010;GOMES;PAZ, 2010). The empirical findings often point to the fact that most households follow a rule-of-thumb consumer behavior, in which they consume according to disposable income.…”

“…Although consumption is usually considered a proxy for permanent income, this is likely to correspond to the case of non-restricted-to-credit households. Credit constraint implies that consumption depends on current income, which does not resemble permanent income due to measurement error or transitory fluctuations (ALLAN; ATALAY; CROSSLEY, 2015), and the existing literature has often point to the fact that Brazilian households follow a rule-of-thumb behavior (LOPES, 2017;GOMES, 2010). In this case, consumption might not accurately correspond to permanent income.…”

“…We set a two-fold goal. First, we provide evidence on saving behavior and permanent income relationship in a developing economy with a remarkable degree of inequality (FIRPO; PORTELLA, 2019), economic uncertainty (FERREIRA et al, 2019), and evidence on liquidity constraints (LOPES, 2017;GOMES, 2010). Second, we investigate the importance of taking non-financial savings (i.e., human capital accumulation) into account when assessing this relationship.…”