Inflação e regimes cambiais: análise de painel

Abstract

The main goal of this work is to investigate infl ation determinants taking into account the role of exchange rate regimes, fi scal and monetary policy elements, and also to address the relevance of the international fi nancial crisis and the adoption (or not) of infl ation target. The analysis is developed for a set of 82 economies in the period of 1990-2009. The empirical results for the three periods analyzes (1990 to 2009, 1990 to 1999, and 2000 to 2009), focusing in understanding the relation between exchange rate regime and infl ation reveals a nonconsensual pattern. The evidences also suggests the relevance of other variables for infl ation, including money growth rate, government debt, changes in the real effective exchange rate, real interest rate and lagged infl ation. An additional evidence indicates that infl ation target countries are associated to lower infl ation, but this result is restricted to the period of 1990 to 1999. JEL Codes C33; E31; F31. (1990 a 2009, 1990 Resumo Este trabalho tem como objetivo principal investigar os determinantes da infl ação, considerando o papel dos regimes cambiais, elementos da política fi scal e monetária, além da investigação do papel das crises fi nanceiras e da adoção ou não do regime de metas de infl ação. A análise é desenvolvida para um conjunto de 82 economias no período de 1990 a 2009. Os resultados empíricos dos três períodos avaliados