Homogeneidade, Eventos Extremos e suas Causas Climáticas: Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio São Francisco

Rocha, Lucas Henrique dos Santos; Silva, Djane Fonseca da; Kayano, Mary Toshie; Bonfim, Osmar Evandro Toledo

doi:10.1590/0102-77863710122

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 31 publications

(2 reference statements)

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“…All years with the occurrence of El Niño, which confirms the previous study by Costa et al (2021) and Santos Rocha et al (2022) on extreme rainfall in the ENEB. Furthermore, El Niño does not always cause extreme drought, as can be seen in the year 1993 (936.75 mm, Neutral), which had a deficit of maximum rainfall.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…These variations are directly associated with the influence of sea surface temperature variability in the tropical South Atlantic, in contrast to Pacific tropical conditions (Kayano and Andreoli, 2006). Recently, some authors have identified the association of various simultaneous and multiscale systems/phenomena, for example, Oliveira‐Júnior et al (2021a, 2021b), Santos Rocha et al (2022), Silva et al (2020) and Da Silva et al (2021), mainly in the ENEB, with an influence on the occurrence of extreme rainfall and drought.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, from the 2000s onwards, the outliers correspond to extreme droughts that affected the entire Northeast Brazil (NEB) region (Brito et al, 2018; Santos et al, 2019). Changes in the annual rainfall regime are directly related to ENSO events associated with multiscale meteorological systems (Costa et al, 2021; Lyra et al, 2014, 2017; Santos Rocha et al, 2022), local physiographic characteristics (Costa et al, 2020a, 2020b; Gois et al, 2005; Lima et al, 2019; Souza et al, 2021), and more recently, changes in land use and land cover, especially in the categories of agriculture and urbanization in the East part of the state (Monteiro et al, 2022; Oliveira‐Júnior et al, 2021a, 2021b; Santos et al, 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of extreme phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on rainfall extremes in Alagoas, Brazil

de Sousa Santos,

de Oliveira‐Júnior,

da Silva Costa

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The Northeast of Brazil (NEB) is influenced by the phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which are associated with increased or decreased rainfall in the East NEB (ENEB). The study evaluated the effects of extreme ENSO phases on rainfall extremes in ENEB. Rainfall data from 54 stations in Alagoas were obtained from the National Water and Basic Sanitation Agency (ANA) and subjected to statistical analysis, with a data imputation method used to fill in gaps in the time series. The Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) method was consistent and suitable for spatially representing rainfall data in the state of Alagoas, according to the adopted statistical indicators. Extreme, decadal and anomaly maps were interpolated using IDW method in Quantum GIS (QGIS), due to the positioning of the stations. The criteria for analysing extreme ENSO years were based on the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) for region 3.4, between 1960 and 2016. The results show high interannual variability due to ENSO phases in the climatic mesoregions of Alagoas. In over 70% of extreme ENSO years, rainfall was below average (during strong and very strong El Niño) or above average (during strong La Niña). Some cities in the mesoregions of Alagoas experienced higher rainfall than others, even in extreme ENSO situations, suggesting the influence of physiography and multiscale meteorological systems. On a decadal scale, the East region recorded the highest rainfall accumulations, primarily due to decadal variability of two rainfall cores, corresponding to the Metropolitan Region of Maceió (MRM) and the northern part of the state. An exception is the Upper São Francisco region, which experiences dry decades. The East mesoregion (coast) had higher rainfall records compared to the more continental mesoregions (Hinterland and Arid), regardless of ENSO phases and interannual and decadal scales.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of extreme phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on rainfall extremes in Alagoas, Brazil

de Sousa Santos,

de Oliveira‐Júnior,

da Silva Costa

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Previous studies [13,14] have highlighted that the SPI is more consistent in representing actual drought conditions when applied at shorter and medium time scales, compared to longer scales. The SPI is a simple, flexible, and effective index that allows for the analysis of both wet and dry periods, relying solely on precipitation as the input parameter [15][16][17].…”

Section: Drought Characterizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterizing the 2019-2021 Drought in Southern and Southeastern Brazil Using S-TRACK Method

Bonfim,

Ferreira,

Maroneze

et al. 2024

Preprint

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The period from 2019 to 2021 witnessed an enduring and severe drought that impacted southeast South America. Initially characterized as a meteorological drought, its influence later extended across the entire hydrological cycle. This paper explores the application of the S-TRACK method to monitor and characterize the 2019/21 drought in Southern Brazil (SB) and Southeast Brazil (SEB). Monthly precipitation data from reanalyses and satellites, alongside the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for drought quantification, are utilized. Precipitation datasets, validated against rain gauge records, highlight ERA-5 and CHIRPS as having the highest correlation in both SB and SEB, with PERSIANN exhibiting a moderate correlation. The utilization of the S-TRACK method for spatial drought tracking revealed the temporal dynamics of the drought events, with three significant episodes occurring in 2020/2021. Initially, the onset of the drought was observed in the SB region, characterized by intensities ranging from moderate to extreme. Subsequently, the drought extended northward, reaching its maximum intensity at lower latitudes within the SEB region before either dissipating or experiencing a reduction in both its spatial extent and intensity. The prolonged presence of drought-affected areas in the same region over an extended period contributed significantly to the exacerbation of drought severity, particularly during the March to May trimester.

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Mapping Rainfall Variability in the São Francisco River Basin: Insights for Water Resource Management

Medeiros,

Oliveira,

Silva

et al. 2024

Rev. bras. meteorol.

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The São Francisco River Basin (SFRB) is extremely important for both the local rural and urban population, running through several states and municipalities in Brazil. Thus, the study of the spatial distribution of rainfall in the SFRB, supported by the application of geostatistics, offers valuable insights for water management and planning. In this study, data from 341 rainfall stations were used, corresponding to the period between 1989 and 2018, and monthly accumulated rainfall analyzed. About the trends, positive estimates for latitude, except for April, highlight that the accumulated precipitation decreases from south to north each month. In December, 85.10% of the spatial variability of rainfall was explained by the trend of rainfall concerning geographical coordinates. Concerning spatial dependence, the analyzed data predominantly exhibited the exponential variogram model. The conducted analyses offered a holistic view of rainfall in the region, facilitating the understanding of spatial patterns and shedding light on challenges in the face of climate change. Our research limited on the spatial modeling of rainfall in the SFRB, and future work should include modeling socio-economic and environmental impacts in the region concerning the spatial irregularity of rainfall.

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Homogeneidade, Eventos Extremos e suas Causas Climáticas: Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio São Francisco

Cited by 3 publications

References 31 publications

Effects of extreme phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on rainfall extremes in Alagoas, Brazil

Effects of extreme phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on rainfall extremes in Alagoas, Brazil

Characterizing the 2019-2021 Drought in Southern and Southeastern Brazil Using S-TRACK Method

Mapping Rainfall Variability in the São Francisco River Basin: Insights for Water Resource Management

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