Análise dos índices de Extremos de Precipitação em Cenários Futuros na Bacia do Rio Ribeira de Iguape - São Paulo

Ferreira, Briane Carla Coppi; Valverde, María Cleofé

doi:10.1590/0102-7786370067

Cited by 4 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…In addition, all models indicate a trend of temperature increase, and HadGEM2-ES is the one that projects the largest deviations from the average of the historical period , a fact that VALVERDE & MARENGO (2010) already indicated. The projected increase in air temperature and indices of extreme thermal events presents, in a way, the same magnitude as those presented by other authors (VALVERDE & MARENGO 2010, VIOLA et al 2014, BRASIL 2016, LYRA et al 2017, ZÁKHIA et al 2021, FERREIRA & VALVERDE 2022, REBOITA et al 2022). LYRA et al (2017 also point to the shortening of the cold period.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

“…Regarding precipitation, MARENGO et al (2013) projected an increase in total precipitation and intense precipitation for the RMSP, as well as a greater contribution to total precipitation from more intense rainfall events. The authors also highlighted the possibility of longer dry periods for the RMSP, indicating water supply problems for this region (FERREIRA & VALVERDE 2022).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This situation should be even worse in metropolitan regions, where population density and the high degree of anthropogenic derivation of natural geosystems greatly increase the socioeconomic and environmental vulnerability of these places. It is worth noting that the demand for water on the coast is already high (SÃO PAULO 2020), especially during the summer, and if there is a reduction in annual totals, as shown in figures 8C and 8D, serious water supply problems can be intensified, such as also highlight by ZÁKHIA et al (2021) andVALVERDE (2022). On the other hand, the increase in annual totals may indicate an increased risk of landslides and other erosive processes triggered by rainfall, especially in Serra do Mar, where natural susceptibility is high (ROSSINI-PENTEADO & FERREIRA 2017).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The projections also indicate the possibility of a reduction in total annual precipitation and in other extreme events indices, suggesting problems in water supply, waterway operation and agriculture. Small and medium rural producers, responsible for the production of food for the Brazilian people, are more vulnerable to variations in precipitation, as well as the reservoirs that supply the Metropolitan Regions of the State of São Paulo (ZÁKHIA et al 2021, FERREIRA & VALVERDE 2022. The area with the greatest increase in temperature (Figure 3) is the recharge area of the Guarani aquifer, an important source of water supply, which may have an overload in relation to water demand (SÃO PAULO 2020).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Studies gathered and assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) demonstrate an increase in average air temperature related to the growing concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere, caused mainly by human activities, whose impact tends to increase the variability of climatic attributes and produce disasters (ALEXANDER et al 2005, MEEHL et al 2005, GRIMM & NATORI 2006, VERA et al 2006, BOMBARDI & CARVALHO 2008, VALVERDE & MARENGO 2010, RIBEIRO NETO et al 2012, MARENGO et al 2013, OBREGON et al 2014, VIOLA et al 2014, NATIVIDADE et al 2017, MACHADO et al 2021, ZÁKHIA et al 2021, FERREIRA & VALVERDE 2022. Evidence of human influence on the climate system was considered very likely, with a degree of confidence greater than 90%, in the publication of the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC-AR4 (IPCC 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Regional climate projections for the State of São Paulo, Brazil, in the 2020 - 2050 period

Armani¹,

Lima²,

Garcia³

et al. 2022

Derb

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The objective of this article is to present climate projections for the 2020–2050 period for several climate variables for the State of São Paulo, considering two scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. These projections were based on four climate models (HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, CanESM2, and BESM) with downscaling of 20 km improved by the CPTEC/INPE Eta Regional Climate Model. Nine variables related to air temperature and rainfall were selected, and the deviation between the observed period (1961–1990) and the projected period (2020–2050) was calculated for the two RCP scenarios for each model and selected variable. Then, the highest and lowest values of the deviations were selected, which represent the maximum and minimum deviations projected for each cell. With this, we obtained the widest range between the possible trends of the four models compared for each variable analyzed in the state of São Paulo. The models used for the two RCP scenarios show the warming of the atmosphere, which tends to be less intense on the shoreline due to the control exerted by the ocean, and greater in the northwest region of the state, furthest from the Atlantic. A reduction in the Cold Spell Duration Index (CSDI) and an increase in the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) is projected, with these trends increasing from south to north of the state. Considering the precipitation, no consensus between the trends of the models used in this study was found, with projections of both increase and decrease in annual total variables and in related extreme indices. Among the different projected trends, the reduction in precipitation is the worst scenario to be faced, given the essential aspect of water. The indicators related to intense precipitation (R95p and RX5day) showed a wide range between the maximum and minimum values projected in the analyzed scenarios, and the increase of these indicators deserves particular attention, since the increase in intense precipitation is a potential trigger of disasters, such as landslides, floods, and accelerated erosion. The results, given their relevance, were applied to the Ecological-Economic Zoning (ZEE) of the State of São Paulo, a technical and political planning instrument that establishes guidelines for land use and management, considering the environmental characteristics and socioeconomic dynamics of different regions of the state.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Regional climate projections for the State of São Paulo, Brazil, in the 2020 - 2050 period

Armani¹,

Lima²,

Garcia³

et al. 2022

Derb

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Climate projections of precipitation and temperature in cities from ABC Paulista, in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo—Brazil

Valverde

Calado

et al. 2023

Front. Clim.

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Cities are increasingly vulnerable to climate change's impacts and poorly adapted to extreme variability. This study aimed to evaluate climate projections of air temperature and precipitation in seven cities in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo that correspond to the Greater ABC Paulista. We used high-resolution models Eta-HADGEM2_ES (CMIP5), CNRM-CM6-1-HR (CMIP6), and the TerraClimate database to analyze future projections and the specific warming levels (SWLs), respectively. Model data were validated with observed data and bias was removed. A bias correction factor was generated and used in the climate projections for the different emission scenarios. The results show a consensus between the models and the SWLs (2 and 4°C) for the increase in maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures for all municipalities in ABC Paulista in different emission scenarios until the end of the 21st century. For the nearest future (2020–2040), the city of São Caetano do Sul (SCS) shows the highest positive annual anomalies of Tmax concerning the climatological period (1985–2015), for the scenario RCP4.5 (2.8°C) and the RCP8.5 (7.4°C), according to projections from the Eta-HADGEM2_ES, highlighting summer and autumn as the hottest. For precipitation, there was a consensus between the Eta-HADGEM2_ES and the CNRM-CM6-1-HR for a reduction in all scenarios and time-slices 2020–2040 and 2041–2070. The municipalities of Diadema (−78.4%) and SCS (−78%) showed the most significant reductions in December for the RCP8.5, and for SSP5-8.5, SCS shows −30.9% in December for the 2020–2040 time-slice. On the other hand, TerraClimate presents excess rain for Ribeirão Pires (+24.8%) and Santo André (+23.7%) in winter for SWL4°C. These results suggest that an increase in Tmax and Tmin, as projected, should influence the intensity of extreme heat events. Furthermore, a reduction in annual and seasonal rainfall does not mean a decrease in the region's extreme daily events that cause floods and landslides. However, it leaves an alert of water scarcity for the supply and demand of the population. ABC Paulista does not have adaptation plans to face extreme climate change. The results can contribute to the first phase of creating an adaptation plan, giving a first view of the climate threat that should intensify until the end of the twentieth century affecting the most vulnerable municipalities.

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Assessment of Water Availability and Environmental Influence on People’s Lives in a Small Basin in the Hinterland of Pernambuco, Using the SUPer and UAV

Luz,

Miranda,

Galvíncio

2023

Applied Sciences

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Water scarcity is a worldwide concern considering that water is a limited resource and essential for life. In Brazil, approximately 30% of its population lives in a semi-arid region covering about 20% of the country’s territorial extension, which is one of the areas that most suffers from a lack of water. The lack of water, mainly in the northeast of the country, has been a problem for years, as people who live in this territory suffer for months from the poor distribution of this resource, which increases the degree of inequality between the regions of the country. The research aims to show the effect of the hydrological cycle on the quality of vegetation and how such processing can end up affecting people’s lives and the environment. This study carried out a temporal analysis from 1961 to 2021. The hydrological model system used to assess water availability was the Pernambuco Hydrological Response Units SUPer-System. UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) was used to view the relationship between living and environmental conditions. The results showed a difference between the water balance today and in the future due to climate change. Thus, it is concluded that climate change will have different impacts at a small scale as well as on people’s living conditions as a result of different characteristics of the environment. It is very important to carry out studies on a detailed scale to provide better public policies for mitigating the effects of climate change on people’s lives.

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Análise dos índices de Extremos de Precipitação em Cenários Futuros na Bacia do Rio Ribeira de Iguape - São Paulo

Cited by 4 publications

References 23 publications

Regional climate projections for the State of São Paulo, Brazil, in the 2020 - 2050 period

Regional climate projections for the State of São Paulo, Brazil, in the 2020 - 2050 period

Climate projections of precipitation and temperature in cities from ABC Paulista, in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo—Brazil

Assessment of Water Availability and Environmental Influence on People’s Lives in a Small Basin in the Hinterland of Pernambuco, Using the SUPer and UAV

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