Sobre o Uso da Persistência de Previsões Determinísticas de Vazão para a Tomada de Decisão

Fan, Fernando Mainardi; Pontes, Paulo Rógenes Monteiro; Collischonn, Walter; Buarque, Diogo Costa

doi:10.1590/0102-778631220150039

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…In South America, especially in Brazil, operational hydrological forecasting systems are mainly established to manage the in ow to reservoirs for water supply and hydroelectric power generation (Meller et al 2014;Fan et al 2016). The use of these systems to control and minimize the consequences of oods in the country is carried out by the CPRM (Geological Survey of Brazil) through the SACE (Critical Events Alert System) platform.…”

Section: )mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Hydrological forecasting systems are characterized by providing information regarding the stream ow or water level in a given watercourse within a pre-established forecast horizon (Fan et al 2016). They are helpful for predicting the water regime's future characteristics not only of rivers but also of lakes, reservoirs, and other water bodies (Borsch et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Regarding forecasted precipitation estimates, many of the forecasting systems developed use data ensemble precipitation estimates as input (Fan et al 2016). The big advantage of using this type of data is that the uncertainties associated with the generation of hydrological forecasts are taken into account, allowing information regarding the probability of exceeding certain thresholds (Ferretti et al 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparision of Hydrological Forecast Methodologies Applied to a Small Mountain Watershed

Fagundes

Fan

Gama

et al. 2022

Preprint

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A comparison of methodologies was carried out to develop an operational flow forecasting system for a mountainous basin. The case studied was the Boi river, which is located in a small mountainous watershed in southern Brazil. This watershed is part of a conservation unit well known for the ecotourism activities carried out in that place. Among the activities, the Boi river trail can be highlighted, which is carried out following the riverbed. For this reason, the development of an alert system for this basin can help in determining the trail's closure in situations where the water flow is strong and could present risks to tourists safety. Thereby, two different scenarios were considered for the development of the forecasting system. First, the flow forecasts were performed using SOPREVA and considered a horizon of 1 day (short term forecasts). The second scenario considered medium-term forecasts (1 to 10 days horizon) and utilized the HEC-RTS as a basis for developing the forecast system. In both cases, the forecasts were based on the ensemble precipitation estimates of GEFS. The obtained results showed that the actual alarm rates were 0.77 and 0.86 for SOPREVA and HEC-RTS, respectively, when considering a horizon of one day in advance. The evaluation of the medium-term forecasts presented good results of this system for horizons up to 3 days in advance. Finally, the results of both considered scenarios showed that the systems could be used as a basis for management of the Boi river trail.

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confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparision of Hydrological Forecast Methodologies Applied to a Small Mountain Watershed

Fagundes

Fan

Gama

et al. 2022

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…Além disso, muitas vezes os usuários não-meteorologistas tem o desafio de avaliar a previsão de tempo e tomar decisões baseados em uma informação determinística, sem uma análise das probabilidades. Entretanto Joslyn e Leclerc (2012) e Fan et al (2015Fan et al ( , 2016 apresentam que, com a previsão determinística o usuário não é capaz de avaliar completamente o contexto decisório relacionado a incerteza do prognóstico ambiental. Ou seja, a ausência de uma informação probabilística não é adequada quando as preferências dos usuá-rios são dinâmicas e mudam conforme a variação desta incerteza.…”

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Decisão em Condições de Incerteza Meteorológica e Proteção de Infraestruturas no Centro de Lançamento de Alcântara

Caruzzo

Belderrain

Fisch

et al. 2017

Rev. bras. meteorol.

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A tomada de decisão utilizando informações meteorológicas muitas vezes é um processo complexo, de alto impacto e, em algumas situações, pode comprometer o funcionamento de instalações tecnológicas. Neste contexto, o objetivo deste artigo é apresentar uma abordagem de apoio à decisão em condições de incerteza meteorológica para a proteção das infraestruturas no Centro de Lançamento de Alcântara. A partir de uma demanda operacional, foi desenvolvido um índice meteorológico de modo a identificar a atitude dos decisores em relação às três características da informação meteorológica: a) probabilidade da previsão de tempo; b) prazo de validade; c) valor da variável atmosférica. Como estudo de caso, foi analisado um problema real de decisão para proteção das instalações do principal centro espacial brasileiro. Através da interação com os usuários na construção do índice, foi possível concluir que para probabilidades baixas (< 20%) ou para prazos de validade estendidos (> 24 h), o grupo de usuários entrevistados não utiliza a informação meteorológica para tomar decisões, mesmo com o prognóstico de condições extremas. Os resultados quantitativos demonstraram que o modelo de apoio à decisão proposto conseguiu incorporar a atitude do usuário não-meteorologista em relação à incerteza da informação meteorológica. Palavras-chave: índice de decisão meteorológico, risco meteorológico, análise multicritério, centro de lançamento de foguetes, proteção de infraestrutura crítica. Decision Under Weather Uncertainty and Infrastructure Protection for Alcantara Launch CenterAbstract Decision-making using weather information is often a complex and high impact process, and in some situations, can disturb the functioning of technological facilities. In this sense, the aim of this paper is to present a decision support approach for infrastructure protection under weather uncertainty at the Alcântara Launch Center, in Brazil. From an operational demand, a weather index was developed to identify the decision maker's attitude about the three characteristics of meteorological information: a) weather forecast probability; b) lead time of the information; c) value of a meteorological variable. As a case study, we analyzed a real decision-making problem for the protection of an aerospace vehicle and integration tower in the Brazilian space center. Through the development of an index with the users, it was concluded that for low probabilities (< 20%) or extended lead time (> 24 h), the group of users do not use weather information to make decisions, even with a prognosis of extreme conditions. The quantitative results showed that the decision model managed to incorporate the attitude of non-meteorologist users regarding the handling of uncertainty in weather forecasts.

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Addressing the gap: advancements in flow forecasting systems for small mountainous catchments

Fagundes,

Fan,

Gama

et al. 2024

Nat Hazards

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Sobre o Uso da Persistência de Previsões Determinísticas de Vazão para a Tomada de Decisão

Cited by 4 publications

References 19 publications

Comparision of Hydrological Forecast Methodologies Applied to a Small Mountain Watershed

Comparision of Hydrological Forecast Methodologies Applied to a Small Mountain Watershed

Decisão em Condições de Incerteza Meteorológica e Proteção de Infraestruturas no Centro de Lançamento de Alcântara

Addressing the gap: advancements in flow forecasting systems for small mountainous catchments

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